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Short

DAX - a difficult situation

XETR:DAX   DAX Index
ITALY is the new danger to Europe, or to phrase it better, the Italian budget is the new danger.
The new Italian government for now defies the EU rules for debt through its possible budget and until the 15th of Oct we will know what will happen.

The major European Index, The German DAX , is presenting an alarming image.
Preserve Capital seems the best to do now because what lies ahead could be negative.


The problem with the DAX is that its chart is not clear and as time goes by, the alarming signs are increasing.
In January 2018 we had a top for the DAX .
This Top was either Wave 3 and now in an a-b-c form we see Wave 4 down (and then a Wave 5 up) or the Top was Wave 5.
The latter is the really bad hypothesis. Because if we saw Wave 5, what will follow will be really ugly.

The move from 3 to 4 in an a-b-c form is depicted on the chart with black color.
For 5 I used purple color.
With red color you can see all the alarming parts of the chart.

Conclusion: We are going down for now.
Slightly down (wave 4 of 5) or with a fierce way (wave 3 of 5) I do not know it yet.
For the good scenario, price must come back within the Triangle pattern and later on above the 200 days EMA .
The alarming signs are increasing the odds of the bad hypothesis.
Technical analysts will also see for the DAX the possibility of a H&S pattern (also negative).

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