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DAX: Potential for 12,500 if the Channel Up breaks.

XETR:DAX   DAX Index
DAX has been trading within a 1D Channel Up ( RSI = 49.754, MACD = 14.200, ADX = 21.600, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since the August 15th, 2019 bottom. This Channel Up is however very close to breaking to the downside, having also already crossed the 1D MA50 (blue line).

Last time a 1D Channel Up crossed the MA50 and broke to the downside was in late May 2019 when the price broke downwards after posting Lower Highs and didn't find Support until the 1D MA200 (orange line). If you look also on the RSI action of the two sequences will you see how similar they are.

As a result if DAX breaks and closes below the current Channel Up, we are expecting a test of the MA200 around 12,500.

*Note that this bearish divergence has been noticeable since early/ mid December after that Megaphone on the 4H chart was spotted. So far it has been trading as expected:







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