The Traders dream became true!

INDEX:DAX   DAX Stock Index
179 1 6
The Traders dream came became true! The pullback stopped @ the 61,8 fibo. Since we have seen the Low @ 11.040 the market decided to go up further. Now we have resached zthe max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau.

Bearish Szenario: Should the ultrashortterm trend be hurt (Grey arrow) we possible will see a dip to the former LOW @ 11.040. Will the market fall below this Level, the next target would be the LOW @ 10.650. On that way down are based the EMA and SMA 200. They should be a strong Support! If we trade below the last orange "3", i exspect a fast selloff-move.

Bullish szenario: If the index is strong enough to take the last green "2" out of the market, my autumn Rally target can be aimed.

Hybrid Szenario: The market can dip to ist EMA and SMA 200 without hurting any trand or bullish Szenario. Should the market dip to the MA`s i exspect a BIG UP MOVE

former Analysis: Beware of the Flag!

former Analysis:
Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo - the maximal correction level? This would be a traders dream :-)
All Tradingsessions above its 200 sma/ema seem to be bullish anymore.
The range between 10.600-11.060 is neutral
A sustainable close below the ema/sma 200 are selling signals, prices below the last LOW @ 10.600 can generate a selloff

Greek Agreement: OK, this morning u can read some "good" News for Greek (bad for europe ;-) ) Dax             is very explosive in the morning. He started with a gap down round about 25 Points, saw his low minutes later @ 11.250 and now is making new Highs up to 11, this the second start for the summer Rally

Dax             caught between SMA 200 & EMA 200
Dax             @ 200 EMA & neckline!!! Critical situation!!!
This morning the fdax made a new Low.

A Dax             Close below 10.850 ( EMA 200) target @ 10.500.
Dax             Close above 10850 --> target : @11.050.
Dax             Close above 11.100 --> bullish again with target @ 11.400/11.650.

Is Dax             forming a bearish H&S? My former Analysis is valid furthermore for the Long turn -Have a look @ the EMA 200 - this is the Level to watch on the downside! The 200EMA is nearly corresponding to the possible bearish H&S ...
Should Dax             break the neckline @ 10925 a dip to the EMA 200 @ 10.800 can be exspected
On the upper side the Chart turns into a bullish Sentiment if Dax             can Close above 11.600, the last High.

Do Political trading days have short legs? My favourite analysis did occur just in parts. Ger30             takes the alternative counting. (Grey)
-I exspect an intraday-Reversal to min. 11.200 (68,2 fibo retracement of the Crashcandle this morning)
- Exspected was a drop to the 61,8% Retracement @ 11111, worst case target was 10.800 (EMA200). This is the Level to watch the next tradingsessions!!!
Till 10.800 imo             my bullish Analysis is valid in shortterm.
-A close below 10.800 increases the risk to crash till 10.000/10.200.
- A close below 10.000 should initiate a Crash till 8300/8200.
A Close above 11600 generates the old shortterm target @ 12000.

Update: Summer-Rally in
Update: Summer-Rally in full swing

Summer-Rally in full swing
The EMA 200 was a very nice buying-Signal.
Since then, the market jumped more than 800 Points - the risk on the downside is a bit eliminated at present. This is valid, as Long Dax is trading above the Level @ 10.850.
At present the middleterm-downtrend-channel has to be discussed.(3?)
-As long as dax is trading above 11.450, the summer Rally with target @ 12.000 has a good Chance toc ontinue.
-A Close below 11.450 would reanimate the downtrend-channel, a dip to the former Low must be exspected then.

Dax with longterm-flag: Longterm-Target 14.000? Let`s rock the EMA 200! Run Forest, Run!

Have a look @ EMA 200 The decision will be made @ 10780 (EMA 200)
resists: 10.980/11.000 / 11.200 / 11.450 / 11.600
supports: 10915/10.870 / 10.800/10.780 / 10.700 /10.90/10.000

A Rally Chance is given if Dax is trading over 10.920/10.880.
- If Dax will drop down 10.780, a new low @ 10.700 could be exspected. A Close under 10.770 (EMA 200= 10.780) increases the risk to crash to 10.000. That Level is corresponding to the fibo-retracement 61,8% (8360-12420)

Will we see a rebound or a final selloff?
Update to my former analyis: Here we go: 10850! This is the new Level to watch!
With a Close higher than 10.850 we will perhaps see a Rebound to 11.030/11.090. (red "3?")
A Close under 10.850 (EMA 200) will generate a shortterm-target @ 10.400-10.600 or worst case 10.000.
-11.250 is the make or break-Level to watch: Prices higher than that Level will generate a target at the downtrenduppersid @ 11.450 (orange "3?")

Update to my former analysis:
The last shortterm-support @ 11250 turned into a resistance. 3 red days followed.
Yesterday i updated my analysis and answered jimmy_honkong, that a rebound back to the level @ 11250 would be possible. Today we saw huge buyers in the market and the dax closed @ 11.265,39.

But what were the signals i saw to make me think that the index will get a rebound?

1. The downdrop ended exactly at his 38,2 Fibo-Retracement (8352-12405) @ 10.859 points.
2. The Dax closed two days in a row out of his BB`s. Thats really unusual for the german main index. That signalized me, that the situation is very oversold and a rebound is possible.
3. The level @ 10860 is similar to the downside of the middleterm-downtrend

jimmy_honkongs 2. question: My second question is, why do you think it will stop at 11250 but not higher?

- 11.250 is similar to the 38,2 fibo-retracement of the downmove 11920-10861. This level is the minimal correction level. Now it is also possible, thet the correction wave will go further to the next higher fibo-levels 50% / 61,8%. The normal and maximal targets with this fibo-vies are @ 11391/11512.
The of the 61,8% fibo is similar to the longterm-up-trend and middle-term-down-trend.
If the Dax could make prices higher than 11620, the long-term-trend will be en vogue again. Than the next target would be @ 11921.
IMO Dax can`t break this level. My favorite target is on the daownside @ 1.0400-10.600
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