MaryJane
Long

The Traders dream became true!

INDEX:DAX   DAX Stock Index
127 1 6
The Traders dream came became true! The pullback stopped @ the 61,8 fibo. Since we have seen the Low @ 11.040 the market decided to go up further. Now we have resached zthe max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau.

Bearish Szenario: Should the ultrashortterm trend be hurt (Grey arrow) we possible will see a dip to the former LOW @ 11.040. Will the market fall below this Level, the next target would be the LOW @ 10.650. On that way down are based the EMA and SMA 200. They should be a strong Support! If we trade below the last orange "3", i exspect a fast selloff-move.

Bullish szenario: If the index is strong enough to take the last green "2" out of the market, my autumn Rally target can be aimed.

Hybrid Szenario: The market can dip to ist EMA and SMA 200 without hurting any trand or bullish Szenario. Should the market dip to the MA`s i exspect a BIG UP MOVE

former Analysis: Beware of the Flag!
snapshot
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GER30/V7Spgf9b-Beware-of-the-FLAG/

former Analysis:
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DAX/CfHt4PAY-Will-the-pullback-stop-61-8-fibo/
Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo - the maximal correction level? This would be a traders dream :-)
All Tradingsessions above its 200 sma/ema seem to be bullish anymore.
The range between 10.600-11.060 is neutral
A sustainable close below the ema/sma 200 are selling signals, prices below the last LOW @ 10.600 can generate a selloff

Greek Agreement:
Greek: Agreement - Dax +2,9%
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OK, this morning u can read some "good" News for Greek (bad for europe ;-) ) Dax             is very explosive in the morning. He started with a gap down round about 25 Points, saw his low minutes later @ 11.250 and now is making new Highs up to 11,450....is this the second start for the summer Rally

Dax             caught between SMA 200 & EMA 200
Dax caught between SMA 200 & EMA 200
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Dax             @ 200 EMA & neckline!!! Critical situation!!!
Dax @ 200 EMA & neckline!!! Critical situation!!!
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This morning the fdax made a new Low.

A Dax             Close below 10.850 (EMA 200) target @ 10.500.
Dax             Close above 10850 --> target : @11.050.
Dax             Close above 11.100 --> bullish again with target @ 11.400/11.650.

Is Dax             forming a bearish H&S? https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DAX/hX4R0XR1-Is-Dax-forming-a-bearish-H-S/
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My former Analysis is valid furthermore for the Long turn -Have a look @ the EMA 200 - this is the Level to watch on the downside! The 200EMA is nearly corresponding to the possible bearish H&S...
Should Dax             break the neckline @ 10925 a dip to the EMA 200 @ 10.800 can be exspected
On the upper side the Chart turns into a bullish Sentiment if Dax             can Close above 11.600, the last High.

Do Political trading days have short legs?
Do Political trading days have short legs?
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My favourite analysis did occur just in parts. Ger30             takes the alternative counting. (Grey)
-I exspect an intraday-Reversal to min. 11.200 (68,2 fibo retracement of the Crashcandle this morning)
- Exspected was a drop to the 61,8% Retracement @ 11111, worst case target was 10.800 (EMA200). This is the Level to watch the next tradingsessions!!!
Till 10.800 imo my bullish Analysis is valid in shortterm.
-A close below 10.800 increases the risk to crash till 10.000/10.200.
- A close below 10.000 should initiate a Crash till 8300/8200.
A Close above 11600 generates the old shortterm target @ 12000.

Update: Summer-Rally in
MaryJane
a year ago
Update: Summer-Rally in full swing
Update: Summer-Rally in full swing

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Summer-Rally in full swing
Summer-Rally in full swing
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The EMA 200 was a very nice buying-Signal.
Since then, the market jumped more than 800 Points - the risk on the downside is a bit eliminated at present. This is valid, as Long Dax is trading above the Level @ 10.850.
At present the middleterm-downtrend-channel has to be discussed.(3?)
-As long as dax is trading above 11.450, the summer Rally with target @ 12.000 has a good Chance toc ontinue.
-A Close below 11.450 would reanimate the downtrend-channel, a dip to the former Low must be exspected then.

Dax with longterm-flag: Longterm-Target 14.000?
Dax with longterm-flag: Longterm-Target 14.000?
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Let`s rock the EMA 200! Run Forest, Run!

Have a look @ EMA 200
Have a look @ EMA 200
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The decision will be made @ 10780 (EMA 200)
resists: 10.980/11.000 / 11.200 / 11.450 / 11.600
supports: 10915/10.870 / 10.800/10.780 / 10.700 /10.90/10.000

A Rally Chance is given if Dax is trading over 10.920/10.880.
- If Dax will drop down 10.780, a new low @ 10.700 could be exspected. A Close under 10.770 (EMA 200= 10.780) increases the risk to crash to 10.000. That Level is corresponding to the fibo-retracement 61,8% (8360-12420)

Will we see a rebound or a final selloff?
Will we see a rebound or a final selloff?
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Update to my former analyis: Here we go: 10850! This is the new Level to watch!
With a Close higher than 10.850 we will perhaps see a Rebound to 11.030/11.090. (red "3?")
A Close under 10.850 (EMA 200) will generate a shortterm-target @ 10.400-10.600 or worst case 10.000.
-11.250 is the make or break-Level to watch: Prices higher than that Level will generate a target at the downtrenduppersid @ 11.450 (orange "3?")

Update: GER 30 IN THE ABYSS
Update: GER 30 IN THE ABYSS

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Update to my former analysis:
The last shortterm-support @ 11250 turned into a resistance. 3 red days followed.
Yesterday i updated my analysis and answered jimmy_honkong, that a rebound back to the level @ 11250 would be possible. Today we saw huge buyers in the market and the dax closed @ 11.265,39.

But what were the signals i saw to make me think that the index will get a rebound?

1. The downdrop ended exactly at his 38,2 Fibo-Retracement (8352-12405) @ 10.859 points.
2. The Dax closed two days in a row out of his BB`s. Thats really unusual for the german main index. That signalized me, that the situation is very oversold and a rebound is possible.
3. The level @ 10860 is similar to the downside of the middleterm-downtrend

jimmy_honkongs 2. question: My second question is, why do you think it will stop at 11250 but not higher?

- 11.250 is similar to the 38,2 fibo-retracement of the downmove 11920-10861. This level is the minimal correction level. Now it is also possible, thet the correction wave will go further to the next higher fibo-levels 50% / 61,8%. The normal and maximal targets with this fibo-vies are @ 11391/11512.
The max.target of the 61,8% fibo is similar to the longterm-up-trend and middle-term-down-trend.
If the Dax could make prices higher than 11620, the long-term-trend will be en vogue again. Than the next target would be @ 11921.
IMO Dax can`t break this level. My favorite target is on the daownside @ 1.0400-10.600
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