Looking for w4 of a 5 wave Elliott Wave cycle to complete somewhere in the pink box.
Otherwise, if this was a W-X-Y sequence, then there is a potential for this move up to have completed already at the 38.2% retracement level. With further downside to a new low imminent.
What if your count of the first (1), (2) and (3) is actually an a-b-c correction? Your (4) could be the first wave of a new bullish Impulse-Wave. Why do you think your count is correct? I have a very similar count as you have, but I am not too sure yet.
shishoo
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@Moorhuette, If the 1,2,3 in place was an a-b-c sequence then the whole structure would be a w-x-y, which results in the same thing. The alternative would be that up to my (a) wave, it would have to be a 1-2, i-ii sequence which would make it very bullish. The reason why I have a deeper (4) is due to the (2) being really shallow. The standard (4) is typically 38.2% of (3) - however, alternation in a shallow (2) can often see a deeper (4) to the 50%.
If we end up higher, then it will get messy as we will have the choice of considering:
i. The sequence down is a (1)-(2),1-2 and we're about to enter a really severe bear market in the 3-(3) down or
ii. The bear market has ended and the sequence from the 2018 low was a w-x-y (as the expected C wave down in the expanded flat is NOT a five wave structure) or
iii. The Feb top was somehow the end of a odd five wave move and the ((A/W)) wave down has completed and we are moving in to the ((B/X)) wave
I just picked my poison starting with which I felt was the most likely.
Hope that helps.
shishoo
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A deeper w4 makes sense as part of an alternation due to the minuscule size of wave 2.