However, at times when the right shoulder neckline breakout downwards, drop less than 10%, reverse and continue upwards and finally has a close above the head.
Statistically, price can gain as much as 31%. If that is the case, we might see another ultimate higher high before the real collapse!
This is the hardwork down by our friend who did the backtesting - Thomas Bulkowski
Good observation on the DAX and thank you for the educational link.
If I have correctly understood we have in this case no "single busted H&S Top" but it looks like more like an upcoming "double busted" (final top and collapse of the markets) or a "triple or more busts". Now waiting for the reversal target of the past AB-CD at around 9300.
Base on a 10 years stock market cycle, i do not think a big collapse is really coming like 2008 even though i am 75% bearish. However, i do acknowledge that whatever ATH that is coming, a MAJOR CORRECTION of up to 20-25% is immiment, only question is when?
Unless you are able to hold it for at least 0.5-1 year, it will big really risky to go big short or in my term (SHOW HAND) in view of your need of cash for daily expenses.
a petty that tradingview still do not have this feature:
1. Yearly chart (not until 31 Dec close) now i am seeing a DOJI
after a yearly uptrend for 5 consecutive year, finishing as a DOJI above 8yma is showing market is doing nothing the entire year. Still gotta wait til 31Dec close to confirm
2. Quarterly chart:
After finishing yearly around 9600 in Dec 2013, the next 3 quarterly candle (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, July-Sep) there are all high spin wave DOJI with a range around 8900-10100 where 9600 is the mean!!!
And right now this quarter (another two weeks to form) is yet another BLOODY high spin wave DOJI
So it has been consolidating in a whipsaw since DEC 2013, either it will lead to an up move or down move after this.
Last but not least,
Using a stage analysis from Stan Weinstein with only one indicator 30weeks moving average,
currently this line is FLAT
If you care to check the wicks in 2008.
I am almost fully short 200+ short position, options expiry at lest June 2015 or longer
but for energy stock, my fingers are itching to be long though :-)
and my latest Shipping post, may also consider long those
thank you for bother to elaborate a little more about your situation.
I know those Bills will kill you if you don make extra.
Like you i lost 50K (which took me 10 years to save) in stock market in 2011 market top as i followed my "dump money" father.
So i rest until Dec 2013 until my friend when for some TA preview, after taking up only from one teacher, i have been studying it 6 hours a day to get myself back in high notes.
Wie ist Ihr Wochenende? You just update your profile with pretty lady :-)
I didnt really post DAX on a weekly basis, but because of that failed Head & Shoulder top, it requires some attention.
As far as the close on Friday, it is only a single Busted H&S. I agree totally with you that in time to come within 1/2 months, it could develop into a double/triple busted H&S. Besides, this seemingly half-completed Megaphone pattern could lead to a whipsaw that form a diamond shape before another REAL and actual big move. Assuming that the neckline will not be broken
There is still a GAP from 8987 - 9079 to be filled, it has been filled with "wicks" already, but filling it with "SOLID" candle bar would have complete the picture. Even if DAX rebound on 9300 for Christmas Rally, the gap is liken to a magnet will still attract it to come back eventually some time.
The last jigsaw puzzle is whether or not Draghi finally follow the little Dwarf from Fed to press on "PRINT" buttom officially :-)