IvanLabrie

Oct 2, 2016 3:15 PM

DB: Contrarian long opportunity Long

Deutsche Bank AGNYSE

Description

⋅ Oct 2, 2016 3:15 PM

I'm pretty sure 97% of people were short DB lately, and pessimistic about its outlook.
I was on that bandwagon, and shorting every rally for some time, but the latest developments made me change my mind on it. I think we have a great opportunity to long the stock here, if not already in that is.
I'm in with a 0.25% risk position, and will add gradually to it, until I reach 1% exposure.
We have to monitor the activity here, but it's possible this was a terminal wedge or ending diagonal pattern, in Elliott Wave parlance.

We can add to longs on a break of Friday's close, to the upside, risking a drop under the lowest low, and add more once we break above the earnings resistance above, at around 13.72, using the same stop loss.
We can also buy dips under 12.38 but I think it's unlikely to happen here. We need to reach 14.89 within 3 days to confirm the bullish momentum in the short term.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

Comment

⋅ Oct 3, 2016 3:47 PM

I added near today's low.

Comment

⋅ Oct 3, 2016 9:12 PM

Looks good. Looking to buy gradually until I have a full position. Adding more tomorrow.

Comment

⋅ Oct 4, 2016 7:51 PM

Ok, I have a full position now, I like the progress, and would like to see a rally above the earnings resistance at 13.72 quickly.

Comment

⋅ Oct 5, 2016 3:46 PM

Good progress, let's see if it can cross the earnings resistance soon.

Trade closed manually

⋅ Oct 6, 2016 1:49 PM

To be safe, 'bank' it here. (for now at least)

Comment

⋅ Oct 6, 2016 10:50 PM

If we break above earnings resistance tomorrow I'll reenter longs.

Trade active

⋅ Oct 10, 2016 9:27 PM

This is a solid close for DB, I'm getting back into the long trade tomorrow at the open. Risking a drop to 11.95
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/gmvjE3KL.png

Trade active

⋅ Oct 11, 2016 4:13 PM

DB didn't hold support here, we can flip short:

I'm short Dax as well.

Comment

⋅ Dec 10, 2016 2:17 AM

It can still hit 20.70 if it holds here and turns up again, breaking the recent high.
If not, the rally ended possibly, moving under today's low.

DB dbk timeatmode rgmov contrarian cocobonds deutschebank

Comments

faylee

⋅ Oct 11, 2016 4:26 PM

I traded DB today:)

IvanLabrie

⋅ Oct 11, 2016 4:51 PM

Hi Fay Lee, good to know, short side too?

faylee

⋅ Oct 12, 2016 12:07 PM

dear Ivan, i only trade for short term, not for trending

IvanLabrie

⋅ Oct 12, 2016 12:29 PM

Cool. :)

HanmoGao

⋅ Oct 3, 2016 5:28 PM

WIth all the media exposure, DB's number is just fine.

IvanLabrie

⋅ Oct 3, 2016 5:38 PM

What do you mean?
I think they are over reacting here. There were real issues that dragged the stock down but this type of sentiment extreme sets up a major squeeze.
Let's see how it goes...

HanmoGao

⋅ Oct 3, 2016 5:45 PM

I dont think there will be default, their numbers are fine. The fine might be higher than 5B, but not gonna drag DB to collapse. I am long with it as well

IvanLabrie

⋅ Oct 3, 2016 6:47 PM

Yes, precisely!

Have to long aggressively early on. I'm adding on dips, still not a full position.

faris.makki

⋅ Oct 11, 2016 4:16 PM

Great!

IvanLabrie

⋅ Oct 11, 2016 4:21 PM

Thanks, let's see if we get the short. Salaam.