Decided to start looking at the Agriculture ETF, DBA. Had been viewing it for years now since 2009, but it was in a long downtrend that never seemed to end, until it did in mid 2020.
With a fierce initial upside, and a stall in the previous months, it appears that there might be some retracement to about 18-20 levels, before a real launch.
Much is said about imminent food shortages, etc. over the past months, but the charts are not showing it... IF the chatter is before its time, and the reality comes much later, then the chart is showing that 2023 will hold the next leg up, and expected to be larger; which also means the problem is not going away, and efforts now to alleviate would only be temporal.
Peak 2010 was caused by low inventories. My guess is that the following price downtrend was the result of lower consumption post 2008, good harvests and inventory builup. In absence of major natural global envronmental issues, global disruptions my guess is that prices may have already peaked. If you inflation adjust the cahrt from 2008. The peak in 2008 would have been arround 27.