This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will be big corrections along the way, and since inflation is the rate of rising prices, not the price change itself, it would not be surprising for the FED to declare victory sooner than later. As for the fact that recessions often coincided with rates dropping, today is not comparable because the FED only started raising rates recently. It is arguable that the FED actually raised rates roughly around the right time, not "too late" as some would argue.