Technical weakness in precious metals

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PowerShares DB             Precious Metals (DBP) is showing signs of reversing its rally that began in December 2013. DBP has rallied 10% or more 32 times in the past seven years with the average period lasting 11 weeks. Last week may have signaled the end of the 33rd rally as share prices failed to trade higher than it did in the previous week for the first time in 11 weeks. Shares rose 16.77% from 12/30/13 – 3/14/14.

Since the long-term bear market for precious metals began when DBP traded at its all-time high of $69.52 on August 22, 2011, there have been 5 short-term bear markets when shares have lost 17% or greater. Today shares broke its 50 and 200 day moving averages which are $42.23 and $42.55 respectively. If DBP fails to hold these support levels shares may test its 52 week low of $38.58, which would be a 14% loss since shares traded at a recent high of $45.05 on March 14, 2014.
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