Let's start with the starting point in my analysis, at february 2016, where we had an increase of 49,15% of the price. this was a long term bull run, that continued until april 2017. afterwards the price started to react to the bull run, and wanted to make a correction, price failed to do so, and we got a new all time high, where we actually have been in a range market since then.
if you look closely the price have made a new higher high before falling again to support area at 12,000 ish. all the increases is marked with red boxes, and all of them have almost parallel factors, the first is 60 days long with an 7,98% increase of the price, where the second we have 58 Days with an increase of 12,31%, the third and last short term uptrend is 62 days, with a 12,64% increase of the price.
In the yellow boxes we have the first one with 78 days and a decrease of 8,19% of the price. The second yellow box we have 83 days and a decrease of 6,22% of the price. where the green box is 59 days with 13,86% decrease of the price.
The curves above price represent a H&S pattern, while the purple arrows is measuring the timeline for the formation of the shoulders and the head, where the right shoulder have just finished. The purple arrows actually predicted when the decrease in price was beginning.
So what can we expect from the technical view? the question is how far will it fall and when will it recover, either we can trust the purple arrows and expect the price to go back to 11,600 ish before going further for a all time high. Or we can look at the starting point from february 2016 and expect the price to fall as low as 9,000 -8,700. but before that happens we have strong support areas that the price needs to break. if the price should fall to 9000 - 8,700 than it needs to break 10,800.
other key levels will be, 12,200, 11,900, 11,450, 11,000, 10,800, 10,400, 10,000, 9,800
In RSI we also have hidden bearish divergence from the all time high to the latest high. This is a sign of weakness, and are often found during retracements in a downtrend.
And of course we have the fundamentals that is also needed to be taking in count. looking at the trade tensions, Eurozone economies, and Euro countries that is questioning the euro membership and the Euro as a single currency. besides that we have economies that needs to be watched closely, Greece, Italy, and Spain. Where quantitative easing program is ending sooner or later, while increase in the fund rate is expected around september 2019 for EU. all this factors is critical for the Germany index, and can be devastating for the price, if trade tensions and political uncertainty against Euro is not solved, we could se prices as low as 9000€
if you look closely the price have made a new higher high before falling again to support area at 12,000 ish. all the increases is marked with red boxes, and all of them have almost parallel factors, the first is 60 days long with an 7,98% increase of the price, where the second we have 58 Days with an increase of 12,31%, the third and last short term uptrend is 62 days, with a 12,64% increase of the price.
In the yellow boxes we have the first one with 78 days and a decrease of 8,19% of the price. The second yellow box we have 83 days and a decrease of 6,22% of the price. where the green box is 59 days with 13,86% decrease of the price.
The curves above price represent a H&S pattern, while the purple arrows is measuring the timeline for the formation of the shoulders and the head, where the right shoulder have just finished. The purple arrows actually predicted when the decrease in price was beginning.
So what can we expect from the technical view? the question is how far will it fall and when will it recover, either we can trust the purple arrows and expect the price to go back to 11,600 ish before going further for a all time high. Or we can look at the starting point from february 2016 and expect the price to fall as low as 9,000 -8,700. but before that happens we have strong support areas that the price needs to break. if the price should fall to 9000 - 8,700 than it needs to break 10,800.
other key levels will be, 12,200, 11,900, 11,450, 11,000, 10,800, 10,400, 10,000, 9,800
In RSI we also have hidden bearish divergence from the all time high to the latest high. This is a sign of weakness, and are often found during retracements in a downtrend.
And of course we have the fundamentals that is also needed to be taking in count. looking at the trade tensions, Eurozone economies, and Euro countries that is questioning the euro membership and the Euro as a single currency. besides that we have economies that needs to be watched closely, Greece, Italy, and Spain. Where quantitative easing program is ending sooner or later, while increase in the fund rate is expected around september 2019 for EU. all this factors is critical for the Germany index, and can be devastating for the price, if trade tensions and political uncertainty against Euro is not solved, we could se prices as low as 9000€