The UK Covid-19 Death Rate During The Omicron Wave
I have written a script to calculate and track the death rate for covid cases in the UK by working out how many recorded deaths there are per recorded covid case. I've set it to take its cases measurement from 8 days ago because this is the average length of time between someone testing positive of covid and dying from it. I've also added a 7 day moving average to filter out some of the noise. In the data, a death is counted as anyone who dies within 28 days of testing positive for covid.
Note that the death rate sometimes becomes hugely positive or negative at times. This is due to the government revising their death and case data, which can for example lead to there being more deaths than cases during one day.
The last days' measurement was 0.0019 deaths per case (a 0.19% chance of dying) and it appears to be trending further down.
When looking at these low death rates I think it is also important to factor in the regular chance of dying in 28 days, with or without covid. This is because there are other reasons that somebody could die even though they have tested positive for covid.
I found this from the UK Office for National Statistics, which has the deaths per population at 0.0101623293 per year. Which is 0.000781717638 per 28 day period (around a 0.08% chance of the average person dying during any 28 day period).
By simply working out how much more likely someone is to die when infected vs not infected, I would estimate the current chance of the average person dying from being infected with covid-19 to be 0.11%.
The median age of death from covid in the UK is 83, so in young people this risk is far lower.
Link to where I found the chance of dying with or without covid is below.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020
Note that the death rate sometimes becomes hugely positive or negative at times. This is due to the government revising their death and case data, which can for example lead to there being more deaths than cases during one day.
The last days' measurement was 0.0019 deaths per case (a 0.19% chance of dying) and it appears to be trending further down.
When looking at these low death rates I think it is also important to factor in the regular chance of dying in 28 days, with or without covid. This is because there are other reasons that somebody could die even though they have tested positive for covid.
I found this from the UK Office for National Statistics, which has the deaths per population at 0.0101623293 per year. Which is 0.000781717638 per 28 day period (around a 0.08% chance of the average person dying during any 28 day period).
By simply working out how much more likely someone is to die when infected vs not infected, I would estimate the current chance of the average person dying from being infected with covid-19 to be 0.11%.
The median age of death from covid in the UK is 83, so in young people this risk is far lower.
Link to where I found the chance of dying with or without covid is below.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020