jginnetty17

DEO breaks out of ascending triangle to gap above .50 Fib

Long
NYSE:DEO   Diageo plc
Establish long position now and accumulate strongly if shares break above 143.75.

DEO shares rose 1.33% on 11/8 and closed near the top their range, forming a bullish pin candlestick . This comes after having opened significantly higher (>$3) than the previous close, leaving a gap around $140 that may enact some gravitational pull on share prices in the near-term. This risk is far outweighed, in my view, by looks to be a break out out from an ascending triangle continuation pattern, an interpretation which would allow shares to move quickly higher into 2019 as they reclaim and then far outpace the appreciation they enjoyed in September.

- Bullish cross of DI+ above DI- reflect the lower highs and higher lows throughout October, a classic sign of an ascending triangle continuation pattern. After a brief but intense period of consolidation, the buying pressure in the stock has finally 'won' out, and yesterday's bullish

- While ADX continues to decline further below 20, this is acceptable in my view given the large positive and negative swings associated with triangle consolidation. Note: ADX measures strength (but not direction) of trends, and levels below 20 are generally associated with weakening or non-trending (rangebound) shares. This is technically the weakest part of the chart, and improvement in this line back above 20 would give strong incremental confirmation of the potential bullish continuation.

- I still think some shares are definitely worth buying before this occurs. Looking closer at ADX , the rate of decline has been decelerating over the past week, and the rightmost edge of the line has just shown a minor but undeniable inflection back into an upward slope.

- MUCH MORE IMPORTANT (and more intuitive), the movement of the ADX line shows visible correlation with the green DI+ line throughout October's ups and down. Since DI+ and D- are measures of trend direction (cumulative recent up moves vs. down moves), the relationship suggested strong commitment from Bulls throughout the month of October, 'stepping up' to fuel brief recoveries while not strong enough to notch higher highs (hence Rising Triangle).


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Rough Notes:


*** The idea is that these mini-rallies, with the DI+ crossing above DI-), create pent-up volume ...confirmed in BOTH signals... would lvoe to have three but might as well take a chance now...shares look cheap, The one bar outside the triangle suggested

Current share prices of are ALMOST EXACTLY EQUIDISTANT in upside/downside between 52-week high and low.

at first that the bears shows INDECISION, another debatably positive sign in my view

(Bulls are 'stepping up' to meet selling pressures).
- This correlation is a notable change from September, when a sub-20 and weakening ADX line failed to confirm the short-term lift

- There are several obvious

recovery in DEO . Note that the signal was falsely

- Last but not least we see a consistent building in On-Balance-Volume (OBV), a leading price and volume indicator that may be interpreted as "Smart Money". Just as we saw in ABX , OBV did NOT confirm the pre-October run-up in DEO shares, and I note

current declines are reflecting recent consolidation in the stock as bears give up their tough

is acceptable in this case as triangle's are precursors

giving further support to the ascending triangle interpretation,
- More notably, a close

- Above logic may imply ...


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