Yield Curve Spread for each economy: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M): fred.stlouisfed.org//series/T10Y3M
A valuable forecasting tool for predicting recessions 2-6 quarters ahead. The yield curve is defined as the difference (or spread) between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill. * A slowdown or fear of a recession causes the people to demand higher interest rates for short-term borrowing. *There is no guarantee that an inverted yield curve will always predict a recession; but when it does be vigilant and look for a strategy favoring a weaker dollar or currency pair.