Alright, does anyone else feel a BIT toppy here. When I say feel, I mean there's technical signals and there's confluence. Talk to some RE agents maybe... Go look on Zillow, for the profits have indeed been delayed and withering... This might the simplest long term short possible.
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Look at Q1 23' change. SPY up 33% on this position YTD.
You can pull up the financial statements online and see that before covid to last year they increases their business by 25% per year. Then this year it pulled back 3%. Seems pretty reasonable to me. The have 500K lots and 50K in available homes. That's a lot. Plus they clse 80% of them with their own mortgage and title company, pre buy billions in mortgages at lower interest rates as the rates climb, etc., etc. They seem to be doing fine. And besides, when their stock drops, it typically not associated to profitability. I never can figure out why it moves the way it does. I'm hanging in for now. But as soon as I see signs, I'll bail out and catch it on the bottom again.