The overall economic situation in Europe and even worldwide seems to be slowly but steadily deteriorating. However, if we are looking to short then deciding on a good target is very difficult, because it is difficult to anticipate which sectors might break first. For me, the most likely scenario will be that the consumer worldwide will slowly start running out of money to spend as loss of purchasing power due to prolonged inflation will start to bite. Hence, a global economic slowdown in shipping and distribution services, especially in and out of Europe seems to be likely.
Based on this fundamental hypothesis targeting XETR:DHL as one of the largest European transportation service providers is a logical choice.
Now all we are looking for is a technical signal to enter a bearish position and we believe to have identified a possible entry. It looks like there could be a bearish ABC pattern:
A - Bounce off 42 (done) B - Rejection at 44 C - Breakdown to next support at 40
I agree. The economic situation is slowly but steadily deteriorating, and many investors probably underestimated how long interest rates would stay elevated. It will undoubtedly lead to an interesting outcome in the market next year. Thanks for your idea on DHL.