Boy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic.
Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality.
This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures.
We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly.
This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
Comment
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May see 1-2 more days of a Dow rally. Let's see if we continue downward.
Trade active
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We're still active on this one. We reached the first target of 323, rallied back up to HKEX:330 but the Fed pump pushed it higher. The prediction is still in play as we have not cleanly broken through the funnel. Be vigilant.
Wow, that MACD is about as primed for an oscillation back down as it ever gets. Yet, we're heading into December which is typically bullish. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
WorldEconomics
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@spy_master - Agreed as the hype for retail, but after reading some news recently of Americans skipping thanksgiving altogether or the likely railroad strikes, this December can play out quite bad too.
simtrader19a
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Lets see what happens
simtrader19a
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Nice Megaphone pattern With FED rates due in Dec for 50 BPS and market expecting 5.0 rates SPX500 expected value is dropping but earnings still remain positive, At some stage they will drop and since the Tech stocks are adding to unemployment think this will occur shortly as major companies earnings will will be effected considerably