Therefore it's a .
Look back at Nov 2018 to see the , which was imperfect in Fibo. Market tanked anyway, if it wants to sell, it will sell, regardless of the Fibo.
Now we find ourselves in the penultimiate move of a great Bull Market. The next to last move is a CD downtrend wave; it will be fierce and sell for a month.
The pattern has evolved near perfection with 0.786 XB and a rare 0.905 BC Fib retracement of XA. This is quite and suggests the rally to follow structure completion will be vigorous.
A perfect would evolve with XD = 1.27; this model projects 1.618 Fibo retracement to 24,224 on 29 October. Just a WAG, but I'm betting on it.
After completion, the Bull wave to follow will likely reach 2.618 of AD, or 27,716 by EOY.
This isn't investment advice, just a model based on observation; models may fail; be prudent; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Would be a rookie move to short now; wait for a rally fgs!
Expect some residual selling on Thursday, weakest day of the week statistically.
Hedged with Friday's weeklies, shorted OTM puts on $4 spreads.
26,783 = 0.786. Would take a positive global news flash to get there IMO.
In DIA 265P Nov contracts; short 11 Oct OTM weeklies.
See my related post on Harmonic Theory. Still not sure if that will pan out or whether we get bounce off the lower TL back into triangle. It is still a Bull Market for the time being and I still expect higher prices EOY, but it's gonna be a rocky road IMO. Very chancy here!
For this particular idea; notice we are trading just above the rising TL of bottom channel; this COULD be a retest of lows and a higher move MIGHT be around the corner, or at least an upper channel test if it becomes range-bound. Nothing is certain; take what you can get when you can get it!
Might get some short covering EOD, but triple combo punch of Trump foreign policy + Powell "This ain't QE!" and China tariffs go into effect on 15 Oct makes setup for a deep selloff IMO. Could start Wednesday IMO.
9 minutes ago
Comment: Added IWM Nov 147P spread against Friday 144s. Good luck folks!
Comment: Added 10 Nov DIA 263P spread against Friday's 257.5; looks like a failed TL retest.
Now re-established half my position; add if we get another rally.
Moved down so quick I had to roll some of the short legs on Bear spreads, lol.
Always do that for a credit, never need take a loss on those short contracts!
IMO a serious correction can start very soon; now rumors circulating that trade talks have stalled before they started. China is getting irked and hostile, Trump accuses them of human rights violation, they ban our footballers, and tariffs kickoff next Tuesday. IMO if Trump gets pissed at them he will jack tariffs more and blow up the whole mess. A deal now seems a remote possibility at best IMO.
Today Powell told us "THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT QE!" repeatedly. So no more rate cuts, as expected. Hold inflation near 2% and stay the course, he said.
The downtrend course, LOL. Gone short again; GLTA!
If China is ready to make a deal as they hinted today, then all short bets are off.
R/R is poor again; resting at TL support, strong bounce today; (+) news will explode it up into channel, stay cool, be safe!
When direction is clear then bet on the trend IMO.
I doubt we get a severe decline just yet, but expect that huge AM gap to fill back down and likely test bottom TL again within a week.
Shorted QQQ; in Nov 192P spread against Oct 188P; SPY 300P spread vs Oct 295P; DIA 270P spread vs Oct 266P; and IWM Nov 152P sperad v Oct 148s.
So, $4 bear diagonal spreads trading next month vs this month's weeklies.
Comment: After the news release, it seems we got an exhaustion gap with a shooting star from open > close.
If we close the gap up with a gap down Monday in light holiday trade, it would give us the 'Abandoned Baby' Doji- extremely Bearish.
Seems like bullish undertone persists. Advancers > Decliners; breadth firms up; IMO this beast wants to retest the ATH. Useless to hold shorts while it does this; but too risky to bet that it will. Sidelined again; stop lossed. Look for blowoff rally to re-enter. R/R poor again until we get a clear signal IMO.