ItisCalvin

Just How Far Until The Market Bottom?

Short
DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
As we face the harsh reality that the world around us is shutting down, we must come to terms with just how low this market can go. The 5-wave pattern has failed to fruition which is expected if there is no bounce.
The next target level is 16,834 in about a week if this continues. Until the economy ramps back up, more bad news is on the way.

News
  • The stimulus bill is still up in the air and the market isn't reacting positively to the lack of decisiveness amongst Congress.
  • The SBA (Small Business Administration) is planning to forgive loans through the pandemic if small businesses retain and rehire employees who were laid off as a result of the coronavirus. (MarketWatch Small-businesses asked not to fire workers as government set to off...)
  • Unlimited QE has started resulting in the DXY to take a slight downturn.
  • More states are ordering citizens to stay indoors unless going to work or groceries and medical.

The Fed has thrown a bucket of water onto the forest fire and has not been able to put out the flames of the economy. Death tolls are only growing at an ever-increasing rate as are hospitalizations. Some people still are not understanding the gravity of the situation and are still clustering close to one another at the beach as spring break is kicking off for many states.

It also seems like the flight to gold is beginning to lessen as paper gold ( AMEX:GLD ) is back on the rise.

The CBOE:VIX is starting to calm down and is showing some bearish divergence. The trend could easily reverse if more fear sets into the market.

The next few days will be scrutinized carefully to see what happens and where we head from here. A push upwards is starting to build-up energy behind the scenes but is not quite ready to interfere with the bears.

Good luck to everyone out there in the market and don't look at your long-term portfolio too long while you stare into the depths of your TP rolls as you search for the meaning to life while in isolation.

Comments

What do you think after such a big day?
Reply
ItisCalvin jobudunks
@jobudunks, a big part of the market rally, I suspect, is President Trump saying that we need to get the economy going as quickly because "the cure is worse than the problem."
We haven't quite had big gap ups like this since nearly a century ago. I suspect the markets may bounce which would call for a new count. The overall trend remains bearish until we see more sustained moves up.
Reply
jobudunks ItisCalvin
@ItisCalvin, thanks. Just started looking at charts in the last couple of weeks. Interesting stuff! If you have any suggestions, let me know.
Reply
ItisCalvin jobudunks
@jobudunks, I started learning from ChartSchool (a free resource) many years back digesting whatever I could and practicing with the indicators.
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