DOW JONES Will a Rate Cut do more harm than good to stocks?

Bold question and should certainly raise some eyebrows but let's look at the complete picture. This chart displays Dow Jones (DJI) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (blue trend-line) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.

I will make it quick to save us time and then each person can individually make their own conclusions from the chart. The combination of the Fed raising the rates since the start of the with Dow dropping, hasn't been seen often historically on this data set dating back to June 1954. In fact historically, Dow (stock markets in general) tend to rise along with rates. Some times (4 in history) when the Rate Cut happens, Dow drops as well. Most of the times the stock rally continued without a major drop even after the Rate Cuts.

Basically the only time on this data-set that resembles today (assuming the Fed pauses or cuts in 2023) is 1969/70, 1972-74 and 1983/84, with the latter largely associated with Fed Chair Volcker monetary practices. During those periods, Dow started falling as the Rate was rising and then dropped after the Rate cut.

Do you think we are repeating such a period? Will a Rate Cut in the near future do more harm than good to the stock market?



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