Not seeing anything to trade right now, so I am just chilling, and posting stuff here. I am following 2 trading rules at once (do not overtrade & take breaks to relax).
The best exceptional individuals dump on the early pros and savvy investors that dump on the institutions that dump on the various funds that dump on the twitter shills that dump on the baggies that dump on the best exceptional individuals that...
Gosh, if we could only shift it all by one the joe "macdonalds" macbaggy could actually make it. So close. Yet so far.
The secret? Not chasing every single move like a coke addicted chimpanzee. Choose the select few you KNOW are exceptional opportunities, and let the stuck struggling tryhards laugh at you for missing out.
Let the FOMO crew laugh at you for "missing out" and "being so wrong about the trend", smile when you dump on them for the 10th time in a row and they start being angry and calling you mean "what did we do to you?". So I suppose you could say here to emotion is important. If you start whining because the general public and low tier shitfunds make fun of you you will NEVER be able to do this.
Also, just having common sense and not - well, being a coke addicted chimpanzee that gets excited or panics. Facts matter. You get in for a reason. You get out for a reason.
I will list 15 of the top rules of Paul Tudor Jones, I agree with most of them, well all of those here (just that number 1 does not apply to most of us):
I find it very interesting that Bitcoin "traders" as in "not gamblers" have the exact opposite rules. They are very educational. Let me show you:
They are just so bad. Amazing. Like they try to be as awful as possible. And they even manage to lose by trying so hard to catch bottoms like the top traders. They are even worse than "general public". This is why I love them so much, so educational. Just do the exact opposite of what they do.
And you do not need to be the 1 in a million. Even the "various funds" make money. Sometimes they blow up too, so the rule "cut your losers" has no room for errors.
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But seriously it does not really work like this. It looks perfect in the chart.
The way it is more like is:
It is very un-recommended to try and catch bottoms. But what I do is not catching bottoms, but rather buying pullbacks. I chase bottoms in CONSOLIDATION. Not in trends. Either: - Countertrend on H4 but on D1 it is just a pullbacks and I go with the trend - We are in a consolidation and I go against the low TF trend at (5) around support
Paul Tudor Jones does this and is successful. I looked more into what he used to say and do, and he has the same rules as me, uses the same tools, thinks the same way... So clearly what I do works (just saying the 'strategy' is similar). It may be hard, I might fail eventually, but it works for other people so...
There is a ton of info to accumulate, so this is what people that attempt this without having huge knowledge and spending their whole day doing in depth research do:
If you think this example on Oil is exagerated, it happens all the time. Right recently, we have started hearing alot of stories about bitcoin bears losing everything (mostly in private thought, people are not very vocal about this, notice how vocal the bulls are now - NOW, this is the keyword)
Another example, GBPAUD:
Another:
Here you have it all, the win (Oil), the SL and re-enter and win (GBPAUD), the no SL and lose (BTC), the SL and miss (Soybean). Only example I don't have right here is SL, re-enter, SL again. Happens too :p Not very nice.
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Not always that simple, but sometimes it is. And the "big secret"? Nah there is no secret. Everything is public. Every one knows. Baggies like to be baggies I guess.
In october 2018 a document was published on the site of the SEC showing KImbal Musk sell.
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You never EVER want to buy something that looks like this:
Better just join the trend for most people.
Most people want to go against the trend and catch the bottom because they are noobs.
And they keep trying.
There are at least thousands of bears that got wiped out by Bitcoin Tether bull run.
So in this case, Bitcoin, it kept pushing higher, and bears kept shorting it. Alot revenge traded. There is 1 guy that turned 200$ into 150k in 1 week on Bitmex and made it to the leaderboard (he is not on it anymore, go figure). He now gained tens of thousands of (dumb) followers and posts opposite vague calls to be right all the time "I told you" "I warned you".
But for 1 idiot that got lucky (and started losing it all already) trust me, there are tens of thousands of people that lost all of their money. I saw it with my own eyes (not the whole tens of thousands I only saw a few of them).
What we have on Bitcoin: - Market cycle count (accumulation, uptrend, dumb money getting euphoric at the top)
- The 16 May the court ruled against ifinex, of course on the very same day they pump ends (That court order was the time for the whales to get out)
- Bitcoin in a supply area with plenty of baggies that H0DL on losers for months or years till they get the chance to break even (and tell every one how smart they are and did not lose money)
- Bitcoin pump ended it made a mini double top
- Volume went up till the 1rst top then down for the double top
- The parabola had literally no way to keep going up exponentially without warping back in time
- We are at midway between the bottom and the top still in a bear market like it or not
- Bitmex bears capitulated, CME bears capitulated, and at last, the Bitfinex bearwhale capitulated (in 1 huge 5 minute candle)
- Some people have a nose for these things, and my nose told me this is it
- Etc, additional factors
Bitcoin is not over yet, I expect possibly 1 more pump up to get the few late idiots to part with their dollars, then a big crash at least 35%, and possibly keep going down, we can ride it to zero as long as short rates are positive and it does not take too long (but if that happens then stop can be ajusted profit can be taken etc).
I waited for all these conditions and still did not risk much, while other bears just kept going short on a hunch because some indicator told them too any reason was good, buyers also as volume suggests while you might hear from the few degen gamblers that got lucky the majority got s*** on by the whales that control this market, good job guys you did not miss out.
I had some people ask me if they should short a few hours ago, after Bitcoin already topped.
Seriously... You don't have to prepare a trade 6 months to years like I do, but you shouldn't just land and wonder "oh should I blindly hop in" after the move already happened. Well that's what most people do. RIP.
Only enter when you can quantify your risk... In these vertical moves... Just write down a set of min conditions to short if it goes to a certain level, and when it gets close monitor it. Etc...
Ideal is to be organised, write down a system, make a list of things you look at, could be for example:
These Fraud stocks (TSLAQ), dead companies, and ponzi bubbles are perfect examples. Really easy to see how the sheep thinks what mistakes they think etc, makes it very very easy to recognise these patterns of behavior. Go try this on FX or Oil, good luck lol. Insider scams.
Hey, MrRenev, That was the most informative, eye opening, mind blowing lightbulb shining explanation/description/education I have read about the Bitcoin market and some planning for trading in general. This post of yours has pulled together for me a lot of the ideas and points that I have done a lot of reading about on this site for over a year now but haven’t quite felt like I’ve understood. I’ve had a lot of questions that needed simple answers that would help tie together different bits of information. This has Connected the dots.
I don’t have a ‘nose’ for this game. I will never be a really decent trader, I know my limits and I learn how to work within them, expand them when there’s a chance and to not let myself off my leash( well... not too often anyhows), but I will be an alright basic trader eventually. I bought a variety of coins in Aug 17 after thinking about a bloke I worked with in 2012 who said he was going to invest 30k in Bitcoin when it was something like 12$. When I googled to see how it was travelling and saw it was $3000 AUD, I thought holy shit, I gotta get amongst this. Spent the next month investigating how to go about getting some and storing safely. With my very basic computer skills I created 100% offline paper wallets and bought some. A ledger nano was 5 weeks on order. I had absolutely no idea about trading, so when everything went ballistic in Dec 17, I was just going woohoo! I didn’t know market cycles, bubbles or crashes. My money went 5x and then Those coins became bags and have just come back to even now, thank f.. Those are staying in the Ledger come what may.
But because of the correction, I thought it best to learn to make it both ways. I have now other accounts for trading and am learning, slowly, taking it easy and getting mildly successful. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
I just want to let you know that it is a pleasure to read your posts and comments on others. Your knowledge, depth of insight, sarcasm and humourous exasperation makes for great reading. I Appreciate it. Thanks.
iljaguzik
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keep going. perfect :)
Ginossim
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Hey, MrRenev, any updates
Ginossim
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When would you short TSLA
Ginossim
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Awesome learned a lot. With current btc movement are we at institutions?
MrRenev
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@Ginossim, Hard to tell but we are very extended and making 5 waves and at a key level... Might lose the uptrend at around 8800 something like that and good countertrend / reversal / pullback on higher TF traders will exit their winner I guess, and maybe even go short.
I think the public does not want to take risks they are never preparing anything in advance and the early ones they take risks to enter early and cut their loser quickly. And never in denial / delusional.
Ginossim
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@MrRenev, 88 here we are, just as you called it now correction to come. Thanks for education, learned a lot through your posting. Im not experience in shorts, do you have a education on how to short.
MrRenev
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@Ginossim, Possibly. Got a tight stop in case am wrong.
Well long = buy a share to sell at higher price.
Short = borrow a share to sell, re-buy it at a lower price and give it back.
With currencies like EUR/USD you always borrow one (short) to buy another (long)
Futures (CME/ICE...) have contracts that are either long (buy corn at x price, either buy physical corn at a later time but at original price - few people do this - or close your long contract when the price went up ideally), or short (a sell contract you "promise" to sell at the current price, in the future).
For crypto you borrow Bitcoin or some other crypto, sell it, goal is to rebuy it later on at a lower price, the difference is your profit.
With crypto I would strongly recommend Bitmex because they have guarenteed stops pretty much. Otherwise enjoy unlimited risk.
Educational sites such as investopedia have articles on this. There are some good ones on youtube too but not allowed to post links here.
I don’t have a ‘nose’ for this game. I will never be a really decent trader, I know my limits and I learn how to work within them, expand them when there’s a chance and to not let myself off my leash( well... not too often anyhows), but I will be an alright basic trader eventually. I bought a variety of coins in Aug 17 after thinking about a bloke I worked with in 2012 who said he was going to invest 30k in Bitcoin when it was something like 12$. When I googled to see how it was travelling and saw it was $3000 AUD, I thought holy shit, I gotta get amongst this. Spent the next month investigating how to go about getting some and storing safely. With my very basic computer skills I created 100% offline paper wallets and bought some. A ledger nano was 5 weeks on order. I had absolutely no idea about trading, so when everything went ballistic in Dec 17, I was just going woohoo! I didn’t know market cycles, bubbles or crashes. My money went 5x and then Those coins became bags and have just come back to even now, thank f.. Those are staying in the Ledger come what may.
But because of the correction, I thought it best to learn to make it both ways. I have now other accounts for trading and am learning, slowly, taking it easy and getting mildly successful. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
I just want to let you know that it is a pleasure to read your posts and comments on others. Your knowledge, depth of insight, sarcasm and humourous exasperation makes for great reading. I Appreciate it. Thanks.