DaddySawbucks
Short

Failed Rally Bull Pennant at 200DMA Symmetric Triangle Breakdown

DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Guys & gals, sorry to disappoint but it's time to face reality. My Elliott Wave Theory projection is just not happening.
This dog just won't hunt; not going to the Moon anytime soon, either.

What we have going on is a classic bull pennant in bear market flag formation . It's probably (~94%) going to lead to continuation downtrend.

see virtually identical Fig 2: https://www.investopedia.com/university/...

Support at 23531 on trendline back to 4-02 & 5-03; and if it breaks there, look for 22800. The flagpole is 1400 points high; the usual pattern is continuation reaches an equal low which would put the Dow ~22960 from top of pennant , if 24356 is in fact the high tip. I charted to 23531 where we have strong S1. Could go lower, 22800 possible.

Likely to break down soon- look at the symmetric triangle arrowhead - points to break from 23313 on 7-10-18. I'm afraid break higher up is unlikely at this juncture.

Getting really close, not much time left to maneuver I'm afraid. The Elliott waves failed to materialize because intense selling pressure into every rally kills it; pure chaos.

Every rally is weaker - look at the top trendline on triangle past week. Got to 24.5k, then 24.44k, then 24.35k today. Each rally is ~100 pts under previous.

Today's weak rally was ENTIRELY CONTAINED within the arrowhead- constrained by the upper/lower limits of trendlines . I'm afraid the reaction 'rally' is stopping at Fibo 24%.

Got a hanging man Doji today as well. July 6 is Chinese tariff imposition day. Whatever the news is Friday the market will take it badly. Fed report today: "no mercy." Seems the rally was mostly due to 'Buy the Rumor - sell the News" on Fed papers. Turns out rumor was just... rumor; more fake news. This cave stinks of bear.

Rolled all my calls into puts today, stop-lossed but got decent prices going both ways, given the mildly bullish price action. In spite of my prodigious efforts to raise the market by mind power projection, the rally has failed, go figure. Probably not long until the break. Pennant could fly for 10-12 days, now on day 6, or fold up tomorrow.

Pennant won't fly long and there will probably be very little lift outside the triangle, which is a continuation pattern for downtrend.

Barely breaking over the 200DMA above 24327 today likely represents the last near-term high until 2019. Sure I could be wrong and I hope so-
Surprise good news from The Donald might change that, but don't bet on it. He's been bankrupt six times folks, U-R-Next!

After another downdraft to S1 or S2 will possibly get a lower high in August, perhaps ~24k on Fibo .5 - .618, before it breaks again in September. Maybe.
Or maybe it just grinds down all year long. Santa rally in Dec and recovery in Feb likely seasonal pattern behavior.

Long-term- probably a weaker decade for stocks.

Brace for impact ;

Good luck traders.

Trade active: Never know exactly where it gets to or when it snaps but it's getting really close to end of Elliott B reaction wave. Close today 24456 is just 20 pts below the 50% retracement of wedge formed by wave B. Reaction wave may be just about spent now- who knows but hella resistance at 245. Starting to make out the Elliott subwaves of this 'B' reaction wave but they are very small. Looks like we could be near end of a subwave 3 at 245ish. Look for pullback to ~243 ish on a subwave 4 then one final Battle of Bull Run up to perhaps 24580 - 24660. Super strong resist at 247 (former support, has become resistance- sellers waiting up there). Buy moar puts!

Comments

Oh boy...... Thanks for the detailed post. I will def be keeping my eyes on the DJI over the next couple days. Any chance that people selling will buy crypto? Thats my hope.
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DaddySawbucks jplisson99
@jplisson99, It's an idea but lot of supporting data is converging. I got blindsided by the jobs data and dollar action today making a surprise lift after futures at open indicated -90, lol.
Market is a vicious beast and full o' surprises, mostly unpleasant. Will buy moar puts because that's what bears do. Crypto- bah. THe outflows are from pension plans and mutual funds for kids' college tuition.
$30 billion last month flowed out of US markets. WIll only accelerate. As fund managers and hedge funds are forced to liquidate to meet redemptions, the selling pressure will skyrocket.
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