For 2 weeks now I've been bearish in the market. There were so many signs pointing that we are headed lower to test, I mean literally a giant correction like SPY back to 340-360 range. There are so many stocks that are trading 2 to 3x their price pre Covid! Stimulus money in the market. Billions lost after Crypto crash. Reverse Repo. Somethings gots to give. Granted I have some calls in the market but I also have some puts in place just in case we go down. Last week I started to think why aren't we collapsing yet? Looking back at the charts I realized there were downside gaps (Nasdaq, S&P as well) to the downside two weeks back that needs to be filled. Is this it? Is this why we haven't gone down? Anyways, just stay vigilant. Keep being bullish until we're not. Maybe next week (June) we point lower. SOX and QQQ are exhausted and need to rest here or are they the first to fall once again? Good luck.
Reason for correction: Inflation: Commodities, Housing, Raw Goods Unemployment Global Economic slowdown Covid19 Supply Shortage (India, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore) Exports. Undeniable speculative money propping up stocks and crypto.
It's as if the market is being propped up by trillions of dollars floating around with interest rates at incredible lows, causing people to invest in equities often with large amounts of margin.
I think your original thesis is right. The timing is the only question.
JesusHentaiChrist
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Good job, I recommend supplementing your macro analysis with the VIX index as well (it's hinting at a big move to come on tuesday). GL
Alt-B
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Spot on re VIX although I’m unaware of Tuesday. What do you see?
Alt-B
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Exhausted is the right word. I’m watching VIX. At 15 heads up and we’re almost there. A friend smarter than me suggested buying sqqq (3x short nasdaq) when VIX 15 and sqqq also 9.50ish...hold two years. Modeled after tech bubble bear mkt
I think your original thesis is right. The timing is the only question.