Im Simon, amator TA in crypto sphere. I saw the news about DJI and I was thinking i might try to apply my understanding to the DJI chart. It looks very bearish IMO. Bearish crossover is imminent on the weekly and monthly
its seems that the 2 lvl 1-5 elliot waves are in with indicators strongly correlating with a potential deep correction towards 1W MA100. We had an extended wave 3 with a stop at 2.61 like before the correction of 2009. But as far as I know the structure of 2009 was a part of a bigger structure with 3 lvl of ABC. Ratio are very similar and the count seems to be in. The upper resistance bullish wedge seems to have boken as a wave 5 reached like in 2009
Monthly RSI and 1M MACD doesnt look good :
I dont trade sotcks or forex but in regards with what I know and what I see I would use extrem caution at this point. Im not rejecting that a long term recovery can take place since there are 3 lvl in play here and this part of the structure could lead to an another wave lvl 3 wave 5.
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I might follow the count just for fun :
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Market open in a few minutes. Lets see.
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So lets name target
22800 or so for a flat C.
20000 or so for standard ABC.
We are now at 25 598 09:28AM 18/10/11.
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Someones know why tradingview has DJI delayed ? Lost already 100 points in 2 mins on google.
Trade closed: target reached
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Trade stil active. First subwaves lvl reached like projected :
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new week starting. we should see a slightly green monday to reach C then proceed to lower for lvl 2 waves.
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From a mid term perspective. the second level projection (green) should stay with 1.618 fibo ratio like lvl 1 wave 3 :
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green monday as expected ! :)
Trade closed: target reached
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Alright projected ABC target zone reached. Tomorrow should start green before to complete the 5th wave of the ABC :
Holding these levels for a few times. I expect a pattern that will connect the projected upcoming wave :
If everything follow we might as well hit my first target of 22800 :
Trade closed: target reached
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2 target reached. ABC fully completed. NOw we going for a projection pattern that will link the projection major 2 with major 3 like expected yesterday :
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3 branch of the linking pattern has been made instead of 6. We doing now what I project its gonna be wave 1 of 3 of 5
Now for subwaves and for major 3 :
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stop and gap reached :
Still same wave 3 traget
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perfect MACD projection
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we should be in the panic phase. We should see major news network talking about something totally unrelated that might have caused this and blablabla
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Wave 1 of 3 seems reached :
at the exact point, exact trend line i was talking last week or so :
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this week we should stabilize around point C for minor wave 2 then next next week should be interesting :
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for now 100% accuracy.
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Heres is for this week. C should be completed soon at MA200 as shown precedently and here again, impulsives wave are already showing. Increase in volatility. :
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Subwave 2 reached as projected at 0.5 fibo. WARNING Panic sentiment seems to have triggered. major 3 on going sooner then projected :
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In fact we did it like projected. 3 swing linking pattern like projected ! yea, method is working. The projected increase in volatility make it looks like it didnt happened but it happened when we zoom in. Thats a target reached for C and 3 pattern swing reached:
I still keep my 100% call accuracy on DJI charts. Happy.
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Opinion update:
What I think about this ?
So tomorrow should be be heavily red and news media should find excuses for it to happen and feed the panic even more for major wave 3. Rationnal behavior of Humans need to find someone/something to point out as we tend to find causes/explications to events that we/they dont fully understand.
its called Apophenia.
Apophenia is the tendency to mistakenly perceive connections and meaning between unrelated things. The term (German: Apophänie) was coined by psychiatrist Klaus Conrad in his 1958 publication on the beginning stages of schizophrenia. He defined it as "unmotivated seeing of connections [accompanied by] a specific feeling of abnormal meaningfulness".
The anterior perceptions was *market was doing too well "normally economic crash happens in 10 years cycle...blabla''*. It affects how we feel *doubtful*. So the behavior pattern will be to search a cause, to name it *this X company didnt had a good last quarter, this must be the signal*(e.g. wave 1-2). Then it directs what we do and it dictates the results *market retracement*. It starts slowly then amplify (wave 3-5).
Emotions can be studied in waves (jayckieed.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/normal-wave.jpg?w=620&h=159), especially if you look at bipolar disorder (mania and panic are in sharp wave contrast). I studied them in school, it is a well established phenomenom. Its no surprise for me when I learned Elliot Wave Theory. Elliot just underlined it in a market context what psychiatrist and scientific put into light. He just applied a mathematical evidence of it. Humans operate markets fluctuations through the same cycle"
I could write a book on this subject. Just tried to expose to you all what if find logical from my medical background to the market knowledge that I have learned since last year.
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Still on going wave 3 :
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DJI daily indicators need to colddown a litle bit. Will watch it. Maybe will name it ABC of major 1-2 :
The bearish trend is still massively dominant on long term :
Monthly is ugly as hell :
remember that i TA with larger time frame a 4H or even daily chart has no weight as we speak regarding the long term most probable scenario
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well just remarked that my projected 1W MACD expected behavior is exactly the same one as the original post made 3 weeks ago.
Consistency is the key !
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going as expect . be careful trading DJI
last update chart :
now :
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2 months old target reached : 22800. posted the oct. 11th.
I expect more a 20 000 ABC then a flat
Trade closed: target reached
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all target reached. if you want a follow up leave a comment