The move up from last weeks pullback, which went a bit deeper than expected by retracing to the area of the weekly S1, has followed the predicted path up quite closely. Now we are faced with a cluster of pivots and a weekly bullish reversal at 25800. I am looking for a move up to that level in the next few sessions and a strong reaction off it, with a negative divergence on the stoch and ideally a bearish engulfing candle to switch short. A weekly close above 25800 would be bullish.
Looking at the two -hour candles 8/8 we got the engulfing at end of day. Starts to look like it has started the down leg; still too soon to be sure it has been so fluctuant. Good luck.
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, daily is an inside day/harami, need a close below 25555 to get the ball rolling, futures have been lower already so reaction here is important. A last rally to reverse off 25800 would be lovely.
chrisatom
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@chrisatom, Forgot to mention, The Stochs are turning down and look like forming an excellent divergence on the daily- very good sign if it holds below the green line.
@chrisatom, Right on thanks for the insight! Agree higher sure possible and warned above. Futures been struggling all night and indicating ~25530 ish atm.
Sand P flat, it seems stronger than Dow index, declines less, advances more.
@DaddySawbucks, looking good indeed, it had no appetite to put in the last high and that stoch divergence is a great signal, The weak closes with gap down the icing on the cake. We’re already at Daily S3 so a bounce or consolidation is highly likely, as only 6% chance it closes below. Thanks for you comments.
DaddySawbucks
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@chrisatom, Thanks for the feedback! I agree a dead cat bounce is in order perhaps back around 25400 before turning South again. Good luck!
DaddySawbucks
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@chrisatom, JW how do you calculate probabilities - your own platform? Shareware? Commercial software? Inquiring minds want to know! :-)
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, Some stats i've picked up along the way (from someone else), based on 12 years of backtesting forex markets. I'm compiling DJIA at the moment but expect it to be similar.