priceprophet

A cautionary tale (commentary)

DJ:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
There is an old traders tale that says something to the nature of, if a price tries three times to break a support or resistance level , yet fails, it will retreat the opposite direction.

January 2018, the DJI tried to break above 27,000. It got to 26,616 before it retreated. Not enough strength.
October 2018, it tried again and got to 26,951 before it retreated. It pulled back to 21712 to get a running start in an attempt to break it.
April 2019, it tried for the third time and reached 26,695 before pulling back to 24,248.

Did it finally punch 27,000 hard enough that it just needs a love tap? Or is this last attempt going to be a half-hearted thud before a drop 20,000 or 18,000?

It is difficult to tell.
All the strength indicators reflect that it can get through this level.
DJI is trying to reach 27,058
SP500 is trying to reach 2999
NASDAQ is trying to reach 8178
Russell 2000 is trying to reach 1552

But they are also weak signals. Signals generated while being caught in consolidation so near to the top.
Consolidation so near the summit, it is like being trapped in a room that has filled with water, you have nearly broken through the ceiling but you are running out of breath as you take your last breath from the last few inches left of an air pocket before....... we break through or we drown.

Once we reach this level again, will we become impacted by a tweet? A trade war? An oil embargo? Such as we were in May?

The wind was in the sails that day. The markets all closed the Friday before strong. Yet Sunday evening prior to the Far East opening the markets for us to start a new week. A little tweety bird went out and took all of the markets enthusiasm away.

Yet here we are again. The 26,000 range.

Extreme caution needs to be exercised here - Trade with caution. Double check everything. Monitor your stops, monitor the VIX .

This can be a record year - either as an amazing new start to the bull market. Or the year we stripped 23% - 32% of the market away.
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