Of course no one really knows the answer to that but this chart leads me to believe it is a definite possibility. We have two very long term support-resistance lines and a third form 1998 that come together now. I counted out my view of EWTs 5 waves up. The 444 and the 44 waves are triangle consolidations as often occurs. Then I was surprised to see that the percent rise from 000 to 333 was almost identical to the rise from 444 to now. We have long term bearish divergences in the RSI on the monthly, weekly and daily charts. We should know in few months if all of this has any merit. Take care. Have a good week ahead.
To add to my previous comment. I believe makets have balance. Where the market makets equal moves to the previous move. If SC5 is similar to SC1 (the start of the SC wave count) my thought is could SC5 make a similar move? Where after cycle 1 is complete, we see the correction of cycle 2, then the market goes into a sideways grind similar to SC1 to make a blow off top in year 2042 and the biggest crash since 1929?
goodguy
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Thanks for the charts and your idea. Got me to go back a little further. I still favor we are completing a major major wave. But maybe it is the end of wave III rather than V. Which could mean perhaps after the near term 10-20 years (ie after I am gone) we may have another great bull market. I hope so for the world. There is some time symmetry in this count with wave 0-4 almost the same time as 2-5. And as noted above the is price percentage balance between 0-3 and 4-5. .
elp
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I can see that easily. I have an alternate count for the S&P that could be applied to the DOW too. Where from the 1987 low to date is cycle 5 is extending. Looking at cycle 1 year 1932 - 1937 = 5 yrs. Cycle 5 starting at year 1974 lows, one would have thought cycle 5 would have been more than extended lasting 13 years with the 1987 crash. However, one can make a case cycle 5 subdivided into five waves with cycle 5 nearing an end along with SC3. If SC3 = 1.618 in time with SC1 = year 2016 plus or minus a year? When a wave extends and subdivides, wave 4 can retrace all of the extension. IMO cycle 5 started extending at year 1987 lows. That would have the S&P retracing to the 216-250 level. Dow would retrace to it's 1987 lows. If this count happened? If would offer an entry into the markets not seen since the 1932 lows. However, this would be a very extreme move and with 2009 so close I could be wrong. My though, generation extreme moves where the financial system is on the verge of collapsing are very rare. To have two in the span of ten years would be unprecedented.
goodguy
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Elpuerto Great chart. You have a better understanding of time cycles than I do. When ever I have tried to work with them I wasn't able to come up with anything that really helped. But it does not mean that I am a skeptic about it. Just that it is likely too complex for me to grasp. One point about you chart above. When wave II is simple and short like we have here then likely wave IV will be complex and somewhat long. I would think it might even extend to your vertical line 3. Such as a "fast" 5 wave down A then a consolidation triangle B followed by a final fast 5 wave down C. Of course there are all kinds of possibilities.
Also I have no idea how made this chart?? When I try to chart the S&P 500 I get the SPX with data that goes back to 1981. This is really cool. Sometime if you have a few minutes maybe you could show me? Have a great week.
elp
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I agree with you thoughs on EW. Where imo it's not a reliable system. Looking at cycles with EW on the DOW it can give a possible road map. IMO, the dow and spx could continue to make new highs until or around year 2042.
Looking at Major lows to lows, the next major highs to highs looking left of the chart is similar in time. The previous major lows to lows was year 1974 to year 2009 that took 411 months to complete. The next major highs to highs year 2007 + 411 months = year 2042 to end supercycle 5. Although the current cycle 1 when complete should give the biggest correction since the year 2008 crash. When cycle 2 completes? That's if my bs is correct? Cycle 3 of SC5 should offer a nice entry similar to the years 1950's and 1990's
jangseohee
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what does 000 to 111 wave count means?
goodguy
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Jangseohee thank you for responding to my chart. When I first got interested in TA I studied EWT which in my view is just a another chart pattern theory. Alone is seems to me to be pretty useless. For years I looked to the EWT gurus who were forever wrong. But often the patterns were helpful as pattern recognition frequently is. But I try to combine my perception with other indicators that I like. I do think often stocks, etfs, go up in 5 ways in a pattern as EWT describes then it is the end temporarily leading to a correction of the same degree. If we are at the end of the 5th wave of this degree we are in for a major many year correction. Take care. Thanks again for your response.
jangseohee
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@goodguy, thank you for your explanation. I am an idiot to EW except the recognization of big 1,2,3,4,5. Anything in between will made me totally clueless.
I did read abit on EW but i just couldnt understand much.
So i have to depend on EW posts to see whether it is useful :-)
Perhaps do you mind doing an EW count on quarterly chart?
goodguy
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jangseohee I am happy to try. Is there a particular index or stock you are interested in?
jangseohee
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@goodguy,
the most suitable will be doing the wave counts with quarterly chart starting from the major indices :-), hope it is not hard
1. NYA
2. DJIA (DOWI in TV)
3. DJTA (DOWT in TV)
4. DJU (DOWU in TV)
5. RUT (IUX in TV)
6. COMP (NASX in TV)
7. SPX