See the video. No more hear on the video. I'll just share my opinions, which is not advice.
The DJI proves me more wrong more times than I am right. So what?
The issue is about limiting how wrong I am - not how many times I am wrong.
New traders - and I was one - struggle to get that idea right. Why? Because in ordinary life one is praised for performance by how many times you're good.
Well in trading it's very different. You can be wrong far more times than you are right, and it wouldn't matter. How is that?
It's because you limited carefully your loss on the many occasions your were wrong, and you really milked it when on the occasions you were very right. In the end a sound trader in any methodology will find that profitable.
Methodologies don’t work 'for you' - get it right; you work the methodology. That means a high level of discipline - which normally comes after much pain and loss. I never avoid talking about losses, because it is 'the most important thing' to control.
Disclaimer:This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Great vid thanks for sharing - timely too. Its very interesting to see how different traders go about it. I'm going to look into using ATR and try to get a bit closer to the action. Here's what i've been doing on SPX if of interest.
SPX is much bigger index as you know. Some of the biggest trend breakdowns (or meltups) start in a 15 min time frame trend (on the ATR). I've found that different indices have there own particular characteristics. The India50 is very wild and does random stuff. The AUS200 is less wild and tends to follow DAX, USTECH100 and DJI. Sometimes it tries to follow all or it may pick one of those. Brazil60 is totally mad. Denmark25 just does it's own thing.
In the position below on the S&P, it may have selected the 1h trend for a journey south. Of course, anything is possible. So the 1H on the S&P may be analogous to the 2H on the DJI. I've shown elsewhere how the pandemic crash of 2020 was a 2H trend over several days.