Details in chart. The inverted Head & Shoulders is highlighted with cups, but you really can't miss the big red candles. Gonna get a huge bear flag from this, IMO.
Closed my shorts early, but never sorry to give the other guy the last dollar. Reactionary wave should appear within a few days rising from oversold condition.
IMO this rascal is gonna pop up hard from here and give us a hellacious bear market rally, following a washout low on Monday, shown by small arrow down, large arrow up.
Should rally until early September, when it again reaches overbought condition, provoking the next and larger down wave in a 5-wave Elliott impulsive negative trend.
The inverted H&S is crystal clear and strongly suggests we're in for a monster wave 2, like those power peaks we saw in November and December before the big break.
Credits to Hungry Hippo for a similar idea in which he better describes oversold and RSI, MFI, etc. Will NOT go straight down, folks!
Trade at your own risk, this isn't investment advice; GLTA!
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Waiting on confirmation of pivot, if we get supported here expect bounce to target upper resistance of 26660 - 28880 box, a 0.786 - 0.856 Fib retrace. Will be bully going into FOMC, again hoping for that 50 basis point rate cut. After his tantrum on Friday the Great Donald will likely generate more fake news to soothe the markets.
If support fails, it will sell pretty hard, R/R is poor, total 50-50 crapshoot atm. I am sidelined all out atm, waiting to confirm either way. Straddle would be a good strat if contracts were fairly priced but the ^Vega has overpriced puts and calls, too expensive to play both sides now, you need to double one side just to break even. Better to sit out IMO.
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Waiting to see if she holds 257...
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Looks like it might hold above 257; I bought 5 DIA 257.5 Friday weeklies.
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Flipped the weeklies and rolled into QQQ Sep 185 puts. If support breaks it will cascade. Tariffs in force on Sunday.
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See related post on the flagpole. IMO we are headed lower now with imminent waterfall cascade selloff in the making. GLTA!
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Looks like it might break up after all. Who knew?!
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Still has not tested upper TL yet, and may not ever. Appears to be a fake break, a news- and event-related rejection. Still could surprise us; be cautious!
I expected it could form cup & handles but appears to have been curtailed today; confirmation if heavy selling starts again this week. Bearish!
IMO we are in distribution phase; and public participation with capitulation may be very near.
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Well it appears to be bulling on rumors and fake news after all. Trade talks in October just in time for a spooky Halloween disappointment; again. Could get a double top in September on buying these rumors and short squeeze.
If so, a pattern very similar to last year could unfold, on sell the news.
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Do not think for a minute that the projection on this chart will be followed so closely on the next leg. I got lucky again; that's all. Forming a Cup & expect Handle soon. An EW wave pattern begins to emerge, looks like we could be in a third impulsive wave; the possibility for a Running Flat corrective B wave here exists if prices can push beyond the TL but then fall back. It's definitely a breakout from consolidation and could run pretty high, either to a double top or even a new ATH, shorting is real risky here, again (but shorting is always risky).
Admittedly this projection is a very happy coincidence, there have been a series of flash-bang news items that triggered this; but the market was coiled up waiting for any positive developments after so much bearish angst.
Proceed cautiously now in small positions as we approach what might be either a near-term pivot, or progress towards a double top; a retest of the ATH is quite likely, as most ATH do occur in September (Gann). IMO any pullback now is a buy opportunity, expect a fifth minor wave up yet and further price consolidation at the higher level.
After three gaps up, don't forget that every one of those gaps is begging to get filled, a correction as an intermediate wave 2 back to the August consolidation zone is quite possible and also likely before further price progress- chasing the Bull could be expensive. GLTA!
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Opening price at the 0.786 retracement from 23 July. Some pullback is likely. Doubt the big gaps will close immediately however.
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Market has faithfuly filled in this chart quite neatly. I'm not getting cocky just yet.
Do expect some pullback, but IMO a real chance for reaching a new ATH rather than rolling over right away is likely. I am seeing weakness in DJT + RUT, transports, materials, industrials and small caps are all lagging. FAANGs and SPY drive higher on wild speculation, while most of the market gets left behind.
Seems likely that foreign investment especially by Asian market speculators are rotating their positions out of FOREX into US Equities as flight to safety. This can't last... nothing is 'safe.'
Patience, caution are the watchwords to heed IMO.
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Looks like going to new ATH, probly eke out a nominal new high before throwover.
HOWEVER; we never know when the selling will start, so I entered tentative shorts today 9/11, as bear spreads. I collected the premium on the short puts and rolled to next series. Rejection from test of ATH will likely be fierce if Powell gives another inspiring chat like 31 July, LOL.
I wanted to share and credit The_Unwind for his brilliant insights and thank you, my friend for opening my eyez and saving mea bundle. Not a good time to bet on shorts!
And a wildly Contrarian notion that might well come to pass, if Rosy Scenario plays out:
hungry_hippo
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Chart patterns have nothing to do with news. You nailed the target, my ES1 charts have been spot on the past 2 weeks. It's all computer programs, don't trade on emotions or guesses.
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The market is actually following the lines you drew, and you're betting against it?
@DaddySawbucks, It actually hit your target. All indication are for a reversal pattern tomorrow.
aox8zs
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25800 long
aox8zs
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It is a good opportunity to buy the dip at 25480 level.
The stop loss is placed slightly below recent low 25300
DaddySawbucks
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@aox8zs, Ty for comment. IMO a pretty deep hammer might form Monday, support has been ~24750 for over a year now. If panic pushes it down that far, will surely bounce; the reaction wave will be terrific, a greed-driven feeding frenzy, perhaps the last hurrah for this ten-year old bull.
This is a news-related reaction, on tariff escalation, these events tend to be brief, lasting 2-3 days. Real selling starts after another fake breakout; 3Q ERs, if weak, will be 2Qs of negative ERs, definition of recession, would spark a 2008-style selloff. 2Q ERs for Sand P were overall -2% growth, worst performing: Industrials -12% and materials -19% ER growth. Pretty bearish IMO.
Expected kickoff for the big leg: October again, ERs report beginning first week after Q3. Could start sooner of course, can sell anytime for no reason at all.
Admittedly this is not 1929, there are no soup lines (yet), and although the economy has slowed somewhat, it's not tanking (yet); Americans are affluent, but...
Technically, IMO we are entering a breakdown in cycle after triple top in prices, indexes have not really advanced since Dec 2017, just churned a price channel.