DaddySawbucks
Short

US30 @30K?!? Path to ATH: Lower Before Higher; Ride the Rails

DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Chart says all. US 30 trending in pitchfork straight railroad track pattern. Bear signal on 12/30/19; comes at or near completion of 5-wave Elliott impulse.

Expect Bear down until it taps the lower rail; a bounce from there into Springtime will finish at 30K, intersection of top rail. Short until ABC completes; then all-in Long.

This isn't investing advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Jan 02
Comment: Touched the TL on the short-covering EOD rush to double top. Dam close to topping here IMO- unsustainable atm, diverging internals. RUT selling on this. Wont be long now IMO, patience, when it sells it will be hard and fast- be ready. I accumulate SPXS, VIXY, VIX May $19 calls. No puts yet!
Jan 06
Comment: Picked up 40 puts Friday in late session, closed on gap down Mon AM; re-entered on retracement rally. Fairly evident Bearish shot-term trend starting IMO.
These are hedges with spreads in Feb ATM contracts spread against 10 Jan Friday's OTM contracts. Got some pretty high prices for the short legs early on! GLTA!
Jan 08
Trade active: Rolled Jan short legs up and out to the 17 Jan strikes, netting pretty nice credit; small drawdown on the overnight futures reversal; IMO this will sell soon; Waiting on the 13 Jan Fibo time.
Jan 09
Comment: Adding to DJIA Feb bear spreads. Adding to VIX June $17 calls. Agree with comments below this bull run likely continue until RUT double tops; could be near the Dec price at 1678; ATH was 1740 in Aug 2018. Topping likely to occur in January IMO.
Jan 09
Comment: Hugs the rail in bull pennant... Fibo time suggests correction may occur beginning in week of 13 Jan.
Jan 10
Comment: Get ready...
Jan 13
Trade active: Amazing tenacity...how it crawls up the top rail... IMO wait for SPX to break 3300, RUT to double top. Accumulating VIX calls June $17 strikes; closed all puts in the early retrace to fill opening gap.
Jan 14
Comment: Last two topping formations both lasted 13 days and broke on the 14th. Now on day 8 in the nosebleed zone. Expect rollover to commence on/about Weds/Thurs/Fri next week, Jan 22/23/24...
Jan 15
Comment: Shorting DIA in Feb 290P spread vs. Jan 287.5P, net debit $3.85, in 20 contracts. Added to VIX $17 calls got in for $2.40; see if we get VIX crush under $12, running close now.
Jan 15
Comment: Added 2 more spreads on the bull rush, short leg in the 24 Jan 287.5 for net $3.15.
When the 17 Jan legs go to nickels and dimes can roll to next series.

SPX and NQ appear to be topping at these prices, touched same ATH and pushback.
Expect selling on the news this PM and Thursday. Can still rally higher OFC!
Jan 16
Comment: And it rallies again! Exhaustion gap IMO. Rolled the short legs up! Holding on for correction.
Jan 16
Comment: Amazing VIX is only off a dime in this madness! Picked up more Jun $17 calls... bargain hunting!
Jan 17
Trade active: Added VIX calls and rolled short legs on bear spreads. De minimis drawdown today, feels like nearing the climax IMO.
Jan 17
Comment: Funny how job openings dropped sharply (less work available) and industrial production sliipped four months in a row, but the happy fools keep throwing money at this like there's no tomorrow! LOL when the tankoff comes it will be furious... another February meltdown like 2018 IMO. GLTA!
Looking at last April, the VIX actually went up before the market topped out, so the VIX trade should start panning out next week.

DJI goes up until the Fed meeting...
+1 Reply
It woud appear that it's going to hit my target next week. One final push from Apple to $325 is my guess.
+1 Reply
The rails are broken buddy
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@aox8zs, jinx
+1 Reply
The rails are broken buddy. If that actually was a true channel, then SPX and NDX would have similar channels.
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Jan 29th Fed meeting is my guess... I think we're more or less going sideway this week.
+2 Reply
The last 3 rallies ended with a big move by small caps, so we must be close now. Chart pattern on all indices set up for an exhaustion gap tomorrow.
+1 Reply
DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, Yes its not sustainable, the parabolic vertical... will get a correction soon IMO. Broke out of rails way above SD now, extreme exuberance always followed by extreme pessimism. What a crazy game it is!
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hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, we could go full parabolic like jan 2018, but I'm not chasing it at this point.
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Gapped up as expected, and SPX competed a wedge pattern, so very bearish for Monday and possibly Tuesday. I don't see the market tanking but looks like you have an out next week.

Of course, anything can happen over the weekend, if there's any bad news....

Jobs numbers were meh... so you got lucky there.
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