I think it takes a bit longer to hit bottom than in 1929... Up to 3 years longer. The moves seem more prolonged as this index ages. The start of 1929 run to the top was 15 years.
We are currently at 28 years...
I am looking at the dates between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029 for a bottom...
Somewhere around $4800 DOW IMHO for an upper 80% correction in over-hyped inflated evaluations.
The RSI hasn't hit the middle 50 line since 1974 and we have confirmed yearly bearish divergence.
With 49 days left to close what is a current yearly hanging man.
This market will direct ALL markets! None will be immune! The dollar will skyrocket as everyone runs to the exit.
This is not looking good for any upside for a long long long time.
It took 25 years to get back to an ATH in 1929... In 1954 the top was breached.
Could this cycle be 10 more years? 20? 30? 40? 50? (2072 before a new high is possible and probable!)
Time will tell the tale. This is why Bitcoin and Crypto as a whole sector could possibly die. Do you think if businesses start dropping like flies and people are losing their jobs that they are going to be gambling their money on Crypto?
This is also why the buy and hold on to ANY asset may be the most foolish thing one can ever do during these times.
Positional Trader turned Scalper here.
From one extreme to another.
That's the story of my life.
P.S. On a side note in the real world. I own a small business. During the pandemic, I couldn't get any products. The big boys got all the goods. Some businesses cut us off from ordering because we were too small and they couldn't even service the big guys. We looked like we were going out of business at the store. We had nothing to sell and customers coming out of our ears. Fast forward less than a year later. Over 3 of those manufacturers have gone out of business. All the manufacturers that dropped us are now calling us daily and BEGGING for orders. But everyone in my industry is sitting on RECORD inventory and all the customers have dried up. Luckily for me and my house and business, we are and always will be debt free. We don't advertise and just treat our customers like family and word of mouth keeps us open. So our overhead is super low. That CAN NOT be said by most companies out there. Most are one bad month from insolvency. With Meta, Twitter, Disney, and the like cutting jobs this makes total sense. We have been down 35% month over month since summer this year. I telling you fundamentally this is matching the ChARTs...
Scary times are ahead.
Luckily Jesus is still on His throne and He is in control.
Proverbs 30:7-9
7 "I ask two things from you, Lord. Don't refuse me before I die. 8 Keep me from lying and being dishonest. And don't make me either rich or poor; just give me enough food for each day. 9 If I have too much, I might reject you and say, 'I don't know the Lord.' If I am poor, I might steal and disgrace the name of my God.
People will need cash to pay for food/clothing/shelter at inflated prices. Need to sell something to compensate, can't eat stock certificates, sell the assets.
@peterbhc, Everyone that is coming into the store is mentioning their 401K's. It's not gonna take much more for them all to start saying UNCLE! When average retail starts pulling the plug. OOF! Gonna get ugly!
shri30389
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Wish you the best of luck with your business, Bitfink. PS: Great work with the Chart, and prior ones too if I might add.
Mikanoshi
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You forgot that before the crash there must be "roaring 20s" with parabolic rise. That is still coming. QE to infinity until everything breaks.
ENIGMA1440
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@Mikanoshi ummm... So 2008 to 2022 doesn't count? 👌🏻