1720 -> British stock market down 67.6%. 12.5->3.07 (65 years before it starts going up so calm down with "just hold").
1835 -> US stock market down 73.5%. 36.6->9.7. Goes back up in just a few years.
1929 -> US stock market down 90%. 381.2->41.2. Goes back up in just a few years.
2020 -> US stock market down 85%. 30k->5k. Central banks cannot start the engine. Decades before going back up.
Going to make a more detailed idea on this later on.
The stock market has to crash and when it does there won't be any stopping it.
But for now, I think they are going to pump it, buy some time, pass that hot potato to someone else.
I am not taking that trade because I have a small account and want to grow it as fast as possible.
No diversification, no long term bets. I'd rather focus on taking good trades but for my own protection (lol) I am limited in my choices.
Doesn't mean I don't believe in this.
I didn't bother looking at where the SL would go since I am not taking it :'(
Maybe a little under 26500.
FOMC very soon. Good news = buy. Bad news = wait for Donald Trump tweet ;)
Let's see what effect this has on currencies too.
Dollar is pumping (I am going against that pump, maybe just short term)
Stonks not going up yet
ES at ath
They want to pump it, they will pump it, no matter the cost.
A revolution? A US civil war? They don't care, they will pump it.
When will people realise they have to get rid of these central powers, and replace them, their role should be, well pretty much what the Founding Fathers wanted:
- A government (definition can include the fed) that does not get in the way of personal freedom
- Their role is ensuring property possession, contracts are respected, things like this
Ok here is the summary:
The US government is based on ideas of limited government, including natural rights, popular sovereignty, republicanism, and social contract.
Limited government is the belief that the government should have certain restrictions in order to protect the individual rights and civil liberties of citizens.
And same for europe, the french revolution that started it all, (at the end of that 60 years bear market started in 1720 go figure why it happened), was so central rulers would not act selfishly, so every citizen regarless of nobility skin color or religion would be able to climb the social ladder, and be rewarded based on his merit.
The déclaration des droits de l'homme (Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, literal translation: bill for human rights) said nowhere "we want money lenders and investors to have a central bank which main role is to pump the stock market and help make the rich richer with no effort on their part".
Not sure Draghi read it.
When the us federal reserve was established, correct me if I am wrong, but its only reason to exist was to separate the government from the production of money, so some general president could not print magical fairy money out of thin air to pay for his degenerate war spending (Bernie sander promises to spend 3 trillion btw, he says nothing about where he'll get the money).
HEY MR PRESIDENT OF THE TWENTIES. The US government cannot print money, but they can take debt. It's at 23 trillion now. Mission failed.
And the fed roles got augmented because people cried after 1929 (even thought that happens every 100 years and is pretty much innevitable) to "prevent bubble" oh ye great idea. Well now they created the biggest bubble in human history.
Can't fight it, just ride the pump until it all explodes and the indices get to lower levels that the 2009 bottom.
It's over. (Might be off by 10 years :p probably not that much)
Absolute sub human totally disconnected from reality super retards found a way to get million in purchasing power on Robinhood with an account of just a few thousands.
Robinhood users smh.
The greatest collapse in human history is preparing.
US unfunded liabilities 126.5 trillion.
Maybe I should make a new idea.
The everything bubble.
What is the word when something went beyond unsustainable? The next step?
I'll make before posting, indices not going to go to zero in the next weeks.
Let's see how this develops.
If we get to 30-35k so dividends and interest are what? 5% a year?
Still worth opening a big long term short.
Idk how much longer market can stay irrational past the 30s.
It might fall below 5000 points. Maybe bottom at 3500.
Maybe lower anything is possible at that point especially if the US become super unfriendly to businesses as is happening, let's see if know it all over confident Buffet acts smug then.
He won't be alive to see what happens in 30 years thought, he's going to remain 100% sure everything goes up forever.
Idk everything looks worse than 1929 and I keep saying it won't be worse to not look over bearish but... it's worse now so why shouldn't it end up worse?
Donald Trump gets elected 2020.
The giant crash gets blamed on him and capitalism.
Minimum wage 25 bucks. Businesses treated like criminal.
The US become Venezuela, and use their powerful army to shut down citizen rebellions.
I sure am glad I don't live in the USA.
It's going to be so brutal my oh my.
Dumb money is 80/90% short, and they are generally wrong. Easy.
Stupid people on Robinhood are using exploits to get infinite leverage to short the stock market.
They hold their losses and add to them up to the point it will be too much.
Let's take advantage of the short squeeze. Plus we'll get some dividends.
My purchase turns worthless if the price drops 3% from entry, which should cover for any noise, I don't want to let it retrace more than this.
Usually if we go up from there, it shouldn't retrace too much:
When the shoe shine boys start acting like experts and tell you it is time to short and every thing is going down, you know it is time to buy.
Price should retrace very little on the way up...
Still plenty of fuel left.
If the dow gets to 32k I'll reassess till then holding.
My target for the DJI will be 33,000.
It could top anywhere between 32k and 39k.
What would be interesting would be looking for stocks to short when it gets to that area, stocks that are cheap to short, are at resistance, pay no dividends, have poor fundamentals...
The problem from me is I am not a stock trader.
I call tops and bottoms in currencies "macro" commodities and sometimes indices.
78.6% seems to be a big thing with US stonks.
Look at alot of them. When the dow gets to the 30 thousands it will be time to declare the hunt for 78.6% open.
We made it to ath now Trump is trolling. Is his plan too to wait for gdp to catch up with indices?
Looks like the price is holding up gains, we'll probably find out next week.
Would be great, and then all those retail shorts will add fuel.
I think I'd want the dow to get to 29k before I go "ok this is a win" and I'd start trailing my stop.
This would be great:
I hope I get alot of setups to help keep my mind off this, because when you are used to between a few hours and 2-3 weeks trades you're not prepared to hold for several months.
Stock markets rarely have average Q4s, 25% of Q4 in the past few decades I didn't remember the number it's more than 50 years I think, have been exceptional.
I think it comes to fund managers thinking "ok so I still have the rest of the year to make money" and when Q4 comes there is no "later" anymore.
2019 has been very uncertain, with all the Trump trade war, the FED literally trolling, Brexit, middle east... Some swore a crisis was imminent some said we are good to go. Just coinflip... Makes it harder to predict.
Maybe, I hope so, this end of year indices make really big gains.
Also I am using an exotic option I don't really like much, I don't even know how dividends work, they're saying it moves the stop loss...
If I keep updating this idea it means I cannot stand sitting on my hands and waiting.
I'll have to invest eventually. Maybe I'll just stay in cash and a bit of property because I am unable to wait.
I have some strong qualities for speculating, but sitting on my hands months or years ... ye that's probably totally impossible for me. Fine by me my goal is being the best short term speculator out there I don't need to be the best at everything.
You got to focus on what you're good at.