@stckpkr70009c, I know it is silly. Rationality goes out the window in a bubble phase. Once the there are no more rational views left and you turn bullish then it will pop and down we go. Of course we will not get to sub 5k due to the govt intervention and the banks will need help to stay liquid. The figures come from 1929. So again it a guess and its and extremely long term view.
@stckpkr70009c, If you look at one of my earlier long term dow chart , you will see. I thought the same as you, people are looking for pie in the sky target and we are at a very long term resistance. If only peeped above it would be very bearish but this monthly candle blew through the resistance by a great margin. There is also the January effect since we are almost done with month to add more bullishness. I know people who have never traded in their life and now they are experts on the market. This market will suck in most of the retail on the sidelines with jaw dropping move like this month and even bigger. I did not pull the % moves out of thin air , they are the same % of move people saw in the bubble of the 1920s. The last major swing low before the peek in 1929 and if take the same % move to the peak ,it is 6.XX ( can't remember the exact number) time that distance to reach our new peak for this bubble, and bubble are not rational in nature. I feel the same as you about the bullishness and how extended the move is from the bottom of 2009 and the corrections far and few in between and this is the 8 year of the run ( longest in 30 to 40 years - if I remember).
@nsprph, great response, and yes, the DJI will hit your level one day. We can only use our experience, history, technicals, and sometimes our "gut" feeling about a trade. I'm starting to think most of the available retail cash has been sucked into the markets as cash levels for the retail Joe are sitting at historic lows. I need to find my source, but I did read that last week. That is another interesting data point if true. Keep up your great work and don't let haters (like my first post) deter you as everyone should have their own rules and system for trading. Be well and GL.
@stckpkr70009c, Thank you for the luck , we all need some. Just one point on retail money - the money in trading account is not the money that will push it to the blow off top. In the 1920 is was the shoeshine boy investing in the markets at the top, in that sense there is plenty of retail money yet to be placed in to the trading accounts to be accounted for. Good luck in your trades as well.