I am extremely bullish on the stock market, that's for sure, but I will tell you when I expect a great depression comparable to 1929-1932.
Of course, it's really hard to predict the huge collapse, but let's take a look at it from a logical, mathematical, and Elliott Wave perspective.
On the 12M (1 year) chart, we can see multiple bullish trendlines that have been destroyed. These trendlines usually last for decades, and they're a reliable indicator of upcoming recessions.
Also, we can use the classic standard price action and look for lower swing lows, which indicates a corrective structure.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we are currently finishing a massive 3rd impulse wave that could peak sometime around 2035. Then we will have a great depression (wave 4) and then the fifth impulse wave that can last for another 100 years.
We can see that the first impulse wave lasted for approximately 14 612 days and the second impulse wave lasted for approximately 11690 days, which is an 80% decline in time. We can assume that the final impulse wave will also have an 80% decline in time.
We are absolutely not in a recession (and I agree with the FED here) and a lot of people are calling for a massive stock market crash. But these people are calling it every year.
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Comment
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If you are interested, there is more data (1693). This would indicate the first wave (1857-1892), the second wave (1892-1896), the third wave (1896-1929), the fourth wave(1929-1932), and the final fifth extended impulse wave (1932-2035?). This sounds crazy, but this can be right.
Making a forecast in August on how a yearly candle will close is ludicrous, no disrespect. More importantly, taking FED's word for granted is not a smart way of conducting TA. Regardless of "people calling crash every year" this year is different. USA has 30 trillion debt and will most likely default on it once BRICKS start trading in yuan or launch their own currency. There is growing energy, food and construction crisis including emerging wars worldwide. It's only going to get worse in 2023. Above all USD is in hyper inflation mode. There is a clear economic definition of a what recession is and lame FED should now better than spread their lies.
As for Elliott, the height of points 1-2 (1929-1932) is almost the same as the last impulse from 2009 to today, which suggests that this is actually the end of wave 5. Zig zag 1933-2007 already took place. The market is well over bought on 1Y. This is well clear on quite a few indicators. Based on that I don't think the price will go above ATH, but even if it does this year candle will most likely close with a pin bar.
Tolberti
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1) "Zig zag 1933-2007 already took place." ZigZags are corrective patterns, not impulsive. You should not call the greatest growth in history a ZigZag correction. 2) "As for Elliott, the height of points 1-2 (1929-1932) is almost the same as the last impulse from 2009 to today, which suggests that this is actually the end of wave 5." - So you are calling for a 90% drop this year or next year. Hmm...you can be right ofcourse. 3) "USA has a 30 trillion debt" - Yes, and it can go to 300 trillion or 3000 trillion. 4) "There is growing energy, food" – The prices of commodities and food have been rising for decades. It's normal. The stock market loves it. 5) "Based on that I don't think the price will go above ATH, but even if it does this year candle will most likely close with a pin bar." - Same pinbar as in 1987. 6) "this year candle will most likely close with a pin bar." - I see only like 3 pinbars on this chart from a total of 125 bars. All of them failed. So the chance of the pinbar is actually extremely low.
WallStreetFox
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@Tolberti, Buddy, zigzags usually happen to be wave 3. And no Sir, US debt cannot go into 300 or 3000 trillion. Economics simply does not work this way and especcially in recession. What on earth gave you such idea? All previous recessions cycles appart from one in the last 100 years ended with a crash. 2020 candle ended as a hammer, which is a sign of trend reversal. And who cares about some failed pinbars. Right now the market is overbough - that's what is important and indicators support that fact.
I have no idea how far down the market may fall, correction is usually at least 20%. However, I tell you one thing, you have to be one dumb hamster to go long at the very top to gain an extra percent in profit when market conditions suggest a reversal and risk reward ratio of going short by far outweights the risk of going long.
IMHO your TA is weak as it ignores macroeconomic factors that are in your face as well as what indicators show on 1M.
More importantly, how can you possibly call zigzag 1933-2007 a corrective pattern? Corrective from what? From bottom/start of 1897? It's a clear impulse! Mamma mia!
@Tolberti, Talking common sence is not toxic. I'd take it as compliment that I took time to address the issue. Cheers!
Platinum-Markets
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@WallStreetFox, I think you should rather put your opinion and projections across so we can compare instead of openly disputing with microeconomics as your only justification
WallStreetFox
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@Platinum-Markets, Firstly, it's not microeconomics, but macroeconomics. Secondly, I have already given my take on Elliott's 3rd wave and indicators. Thirdly, giving projections 10 years in advance without knowing how a yearly candly will close is very premature.
You sound like one of these moonboys who kept counting cycles at 68K, when the market was clearly overbought, had an ascending log wedge, all indicators and candle analisys were scresming Sell and Wyckoff distribution confirmed all of the above.
Platinum-Markets
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@WallStreetFox, well, if you don't mind, I called the exact top across all the Indices on 20th Feb 2020, I also projected the timing and exact tops in 2022 December 21st... all those were analysed with cycles and geometry. I also projected the 5 year bull cycle from Feb 2016 low, that was 5 years in advance. There are several countless times.
An informed analyst is forward looking and proactive, not reactive and speculative. I'm not even sure professional analysts still use wedges and the patterns you are talking about. What you see as macroeconomics another will see as micro depending on your viewpoint.
I can tell you to look for a low between 17th to 21st September for the current correction on the daily TF. I can also tell you to look for a major low on 3rd/10th October weekly candles and a double on 20th March 2023. I can tell you to buy stocks and Indexes from March 2023 and hold until August 2028 for a 5 year cycle... these are cycle projections. The fact that you don't understand how it works doesn't mean no other person doesn't, plus you don't need to be on fire to make your point.
WallStreetFox
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@Platinum-Markets, Buddy, macroeconomics and microeconomics are not some viewpoints, they are a text book definition. My god, what economics school did you go to?
I find it amusing how an informed analyst thinks he knows better than a professional futures trader. While one keeps making projections, the other keeps making money.
As for Elliott, the height of points 1-2 (1929-1932) is almost the same as the last impulse from 2009 to today, which suggests that this is actually the end of wave 5. Zig zag 1933-2007 already took place. The market is well over bought on 1Y. This is well clear on quite a few indicators. Based on that I don't think the price will go above ATH, but even if it does this year candle will most likely close with a pin bar.