I plotted blocks of 5 years as bars and did the T@M analysis for them, which shows a very interesting view of the long term trend cycles in equities since the start of the Dow Jones index. You can see how this helped prevent exposure to equities during the 70s for example, or guard against a decline back in 1929. As an exercise, it's highly interesting, but we also get a warning for current market cycles. The yearly trend in DJI expires by end of 2021, and we are already beyond one target range for it, perhaps the next top is between 58k and 91k for the Dow Jones...by 2024 or sooner. Anything after 2022 is a dangerous zone already, from a T@M perspective, personally I think the market will top next year, around May...as the Fed starts hiking, the timing matches various technical charts' timing expectations.
Best of luck navigating these murky waters ,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade active
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Update: the action lately makes me think the beginning of the end already is here. Both DJI and SPX500 charts in the yearly timeframe give me an expiration by the end of 2021, and we are 1 month from the end of the year. Things are already down hard with the worst breadth seen in ages, far worse than 2018 for instance. Maybe there's a lot more to fall. I'm in cash in my equities accounts, for the most part, have some shorts and only 2 longs in foreign commodities related stocks.
Comment
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Beginning of the end was correct... Gold returns since: +8.98% SPX returns since: -4.56% In long term bear markets, buy commodities/value/defensive names/raise cash. In long term bull markets: buy bonds/stocks/credit/cash is trash.
@TiMMiT, took a while, but it's an interesting chart. Definitely key to be on top of this.
tazerfleece
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looks good. i think Long also for maybe 3 years though. Best
RobBiddle
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I'd be much more interested in seeing this analysis for broader indexes, e.g. S&P500 or better yet one of the whole market indexes. 30 stocks is just too narrow to be useful, and with the way companies are added/removed subjectively makes any kind of long-term analysis of the DOW futile IMHO.
ForexTrendline
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Looks great! Thank you!
market-crash
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FED will taper this or next month, US10Y is about to inverse the US30Y before October ends. The mantra about the inflation is transitory doesn't make sense, all inflation IS transitory. The roaring twenties already happened 2009-2020 and we know what came after that. Global financial depression WWII and the Cold War. One can hope this cycle don't last almost 30 violently years as previous cycle 1920-1929. I don't know what those rectangles on your idea is but you peeked my interest, recommend a book or 2?