In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities.
Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us?
As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option?
My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
@Thallus, Love this pattern recognition of yours. Great work!
Blue3210
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Great comparison
Thallus
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Here is the last 25 years of the Dow Jones with a fractal next to it.
Oh yeah that Fractal is the 1930's great depression.
Thallus
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@Thallus, Notice the "W" that appears in 2016, same levels as the rise up which was 1926 at the time.
There is also a bit of choppiness at the top, before a final push up and then drop.
Right now, we are in that chop, waiting for the final push up.
venluv2k
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@Thallus, Nice work with the fractals...I think the chop is over and the push has started.
konhow
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@Thallus, Enjoying your studies, hope to receive more of your inputs.
it_will_fluctuate
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I think there will only be one rate cut next year. I also think the FED will hold as long as possible, which will make market participants crazy. April is possible, but unless US unemployment rises, I don't think it's coming until next October... I base my theory on the volume inflows into US treasury ETFs & the fact peak interest rates are usually held for 12 months historically, or as close as possible.
Thanks for the videos on various topics, I appreciate your insights.