Today in the US its Groundhog day a cherished holiday. It usually involves a groundhog predicting how long winter can last. The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil who every February 2nd predicts the length of the on going winter. There's a lesser known groundhog named Oscar in a neighboring village of Oxsuntawney. Every February 2nd Oscar predicts what could happen in the US stock market for the next six weeks.
This year Oscar leaped out of his den, very happy and animated. At one point Oscar got up on his hind legs and appeared to be dancing. Locals call this "The Bull Dance". Every time Oscars shown this type of behavior the US stock market has rallied for at least another six weeks. This is in sharp contrast to his behavior in February 2018 when Oscar came lethargically out of his den and was very sad. Then after about 20 seconds he became happy and animated. In early February 2018 the US stock market was in a decline. Experts interpreted Oscars mood change to mean the US stock market would decline for about a week and then rally, which is exactly what happened. Another amazing Oscar prediction!
For those of you who would rather rely on technical analysis instead of a groundhog, this week the DJI broke decisively above the triple resistance zone of; the 200 SMA, daily declining trendline, and .618 resistance. There's a high probability the breakthrough could bring in new long positions and of course bears scrambling to cover their shorts. The DJI is now in position to make a new all-time possibly as soon as March 2019 - the ten year anniversary of the bull market.
Hi, and without at least 50 years of accurate groundhog statistics do you really believe in such a hocus-pocus?
Well, let's see if you still believe in the 6 bullish weeks and new ATH at the end of February ;-))
Well, let's see if you still believe in the 6 bullish weeks and new ATH at the end of February ;-))