I've been watching and analysing the impact of QE on DOWI since the very first quantitative easing executed from US FED on November 2008. Just to recall the important dates, QE2 on Nov 2010, and QE3 on September 2012.
Based on the effect of QE1 and QE2 on the market, I have tried to make a projection on the possible high DOWI would meet with QE3. And my highest high was 16606. I do still keep that level. I have already told my level even yesterday on a chart with regard the state of play of DOWI.
And that is why, contrary to a regular Fib Retracement where you take as a reference the lowest point and the highest point, or the otherway around if you are on descending trend, I am always taking as a highest high my 16606 level. Above 16606, it is an overbought and a long term non sustainable speculative level for me.
And when I use my highest high as a benchmark, Fib retracement level can still be used as a support or resistance level since the last QE3.
I have not taken yet into account a possible European Central Bank intervention on the market based on a possible ABS, or an a possible European QE.
Therefore my point still remain that at the present position, based on indicators, above 16606 still remain illusive because we are about to come to an overbought level if we do take into account William %R for example, or STOCH.
The diagonal of the Fibo retracement is also a "natural" raising wedge drawing as you may see on the chart.
Therefore, on medium term basis, and pending any announce from the ECB on June 4th, one should be very careful about any market situation above 16606....
Based on the effect of QE1 and QE2 on the market, I have tried to make a projection on the possible high DOWI would meet with QE3. And my highest high was 16606. I do still keep that level. I have already told my level even yesterday on a chart with regard the state of play of DOWI.
And that is why, contrary to a regular Fib Retracement where you take as a reference the lowest point and the highest point, or the otherway around if you are on descending trend, I am always taking as a highest high my 16606 level. Above 16606, it is an overbought and a long term non sustainable speculative level for me.
And when I use my highest high as a benchmark, Fib retracement level can still be used as a support or resistance level since the last QE3.
I have not taken yet into account a possible European Central Bank intervention on the market based on a possible ABS, or an a possible European QE.
Therefore my point still remain that at the present position, based on indicators, above 16606 still remain illusive because we are about to come to an overbought level if we do take into account William %R for example, or STOCH.
The diagonal of the Fibo retracement is also a "natural" raising wedge drawing as you may see on the chart.
Therefore, on medium term basis, and pending any announce from the ECB on June 4th, one should be very careful about any market situation above 16606....