DJ has been forming a roundish "top" / widening wedge. A sign of sluggish momentum for the past 6 months. It retested the "neckline" at around 3400 last week but once again it began to bounce off this neckline with a bullish divergence.
Despite the strong sell off in S&P and NQ last Friday, DJ was pretty much unfazed. I will not get overly concerned about US market weakness yet unless I start to see DJ breaking (with a decisive close below) this neckline.
Historically, the raising of interest rate is not necessarily bearish for the market (at least not at the first rate hike), although it would certainly create a short term knee jerk each time a rate hike is announced. It is only when the rates are raised beyond a certain % that markets may start to seriously loose momentum. Meaning we may have some months to go before we have to seriously concern with the possibility of a bear knocking at the door.
That said, I will still be erring on the side of bearishness if the neckline is breached in the near term.
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you. Do give me a thumbs up if you agree. Feel free to let me know what you think! :)
Hi....it's already at 34800 this morning so no chance of breaking your neckline. Despite the MAJORITY of people on Trading View saying it's going to crash/drop/major sell-off - whatever, it just keeps going up each and every time it drops. "They" not gonna let it drop to the lows that people are talking about. I see a right shoulder forming and then maybe a drop of some sorts.....thanks for sharing. Good luck.
Juliac
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@Laurent10, yes I agree. It is likely we would at least see a right shoulder and if it starts to sell of after that to retest the neckline, then I would certainly be very concern then. In any case, I expect next year would be a volatile year for the US markets as valuations get richer.