Extreme bullishness prevails. Vix- dropping off to almost nothing.
What looks like a tiny Elliott wave 2 formed Friday AM but quickly dissolved into bullish enthusiasm.
If this is the breakout move gathering strength, then the chart shows a possible course. I believe we may have entered minor wave 3 of the V(v) 5th wave already ('third-in-fifth wave').
I lost some bank shorting into the countertrend wave today then was horrified to see the Bulls stampede up to 25740 before settling back. I do NOT recommend shorting anytime soon! Any pullbacks now will be brief and slight, no way to gain anything and all risk. Go long! Purchased Dow index calls on the slight pullback in late afternoon.
Futures bulled higher after the close and I expect higher still Monday. I would not be surprised to see another 300-point gainer. Expect the SPX to break 3000 on this runup, by November or sooner.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
I respect your work,
and believe your Elliot Wave interpretation keeps you on the right side of the market
more often then not. with skillful clarity, and for that you are to be commended.
However,
you and I are drawing two dramatically different conclusions,
about the ultimate path of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. See my most recent post on the Dow today.
I see that the Dow has entered a very bearish FAN termination Pattern,
characteristic of the pattern is HIGHER HIGHS, and at the same time, LOWER LOWS.
The pattern occurs at THE END of the move, is an exhaustion pattern
and more often then not is TERMINAL.
....with a sudden price collapse, that happens with NO WARNING.
The higher the Dow goes in the current pattern, and it is accelerating,
the greater the magnitude of the eventual collapse in price will be.
I am currently accumulating at different price levels as it rises, a SHORT POSITION on the Dow.
The more the Dow rises, the greater my ultimate SHORT position will be,
because when the break comes, it won't be possible to enter a short position,
unless one is substantially paying up.
I happen to think that the DOW close on 8/17/18 was Bearish, despite the 25 point rally in futures, after-hours.
I read that you are expecting the sharp up move to continue next week in the Dow.
So my question begs for an answer. Ha.
Do you have an Alternate Elliot Wave Count to the Current Pattern in the Dow ?
Do you see anything out there, that could substantially change your bullish opinion, in the near term ?
Thank you,
THE_UNWIND
navicapri
⋅
@The_Unwind,
Dear friend he is right. U see sp500 3000+ in Sept.. Don't burn ur fingers in puts
serepok
⋅
@navinifty, In fact all went high, not just because of earnings but the meeting between US-China on next Tuesday. We all don't know if there will be any good results from the meeting but all indexes just went higher, the tactic "buy the rumors, sell the news" can be applied for this case.
navicapri
⋅
@serepok, believe or not.. It is Gann theory.after news not Will be rocket
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@navinifty, Shoot the Moon!
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@serepok, A lot of money on sidelines just itching for a green light to jump onboard- billions will pour into this last Bull Run before the apocalypse. Expect breakout from channel this month.
@serepok, Good point, yes that is why I no longer trade calls betting on earnings report price pop, at least half the time the earnings are already baked into the price and you lose on the news.
But there are many forces driving this market now not just the Great and Powerful Donald's tweets and tariiff tiffs. This is the final leg up of a great bull now 9 years charging and Donald's tax cuts infused new life into an aging bull- corporate profits got a huge boost. Admittedly, that will last only into next year before it also gets baked into expectations. It ain't over yet!
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@navinifty, Yes shorting this trend would be inviting disaster. I did buy some puts late Friday looking for end of day pullback and watched in horror as the damned thing drove up to 25740. Was able to cover for small stop-loss, 0.20 cents on 200 contracts, ow, yeah I'm a bit of a plunger. Never buy OTM options! I always buy ITM contracts at least $3-$5 in the money. If it moves against you like that you trade intrinsic value for time value so option retains most of the premium and you can recover most of your capital. An OTM put on Friday would have gone in half. This is really risky business. Good luck!
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@The_Unwind, I am only an amateur and I greatly admire your deep thought on this mad market. I see a powerful breakout with 30/30 Dow issues rising on Thursday on 342m volume with full breadth- a true Bull rally.
A slight pullback Friday was expected, and I had hoped to jump in there, but twas so brief I missed it on my morning drive and they bulled it up right off what looks like a diminutive EW 2. If so, then we are entering EW(iii) of (V)(5), which will be a monster wave. This is likely to be the breakout of trend channel from the cup and handle pattern, now completed. WXY correction finished the handle.
Estimating the possible height of (iii), based on 600 pts in (i) x 1.618 yields 971 points up from the (ii) trough 25521. Note the Bullish sentiment is powerful we had only a 0.382 pullback on Wednesday's flash crash.
Based only on EW theory, I expect Dow could rise to 26492 on this wave, followed by a fairly sharp (iv) retracement of as much as .618 Fibo for 600 points (by alternating wave principle- a weak 2 is almost always followed by a strong, deep 4), which would carry index back to retest the upper channel trendline at 25892. Look for rejection of channel and bounce to new all-time high when the last push on (V)(5)(v) begins, it will likely be a very strong surge, an extended 5th wave, pushing on thru December into Jan/Feb before the rather bleak scenario you describe begins to unfold. Of course this is pure theory and I could be completely mistaken but... Beware the Ides of March!
Your perceptions on the market, are both highly credible and extremely professional. You are NOT in the least bit amateur my friend.
And your analysis in this post of a potential wave 3 thrust up in the Dow starting this week is scaring the s...out of me. ) !
I was trying to relax this weekend, and hit the ground running with my current short position on Monday.
But you are making SUCH a COMPELLING Case for being on the LONG Side of the Dow,
I will probably dump my whole position on the OPEN on Monday, unless we are sharp down :)))))))
Thank you for the advance warning. And if you happen to be wrong on this call, no matter..I believed every word you said.
and believe your Elliot Wave interpretation keeps you on the right side of the market
more often then not. with skillful clarity, and for that you are to be commended.
However,
you and I are drawing two dramatically different conclusions,
about the ultimate path of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. See my most recent post on the Dow today.
I see that the Dow has entered a very bearish FAN termination Pattern,
characteristic of the pattern is HIGHER HIGHS, and at the same time, LOWER LOWS.
The pattern occurs at THE END of the move, is an exhaustion pattern
and more often then not is TERMINAL.
....with a sudden price collapse, that happens with NO WARNING.
The higher the Dow goes in the current pattern, and it is accelerating,
the greater the magnitude of the eventual collapse in price will be.
I am currently accumulating at different price levels as it rises, a SHORT POSITION on the Dow.
The more the Dow rises, the greater my ultimate SHORT position will be,
because when the break comes, it won't be possible to enter a short position,
unless one is substantially paying up.
I happen to think that the DOW close on 8/17/18 was Bearish, despite the 25 point rally in futures, after-hours.
I read that you are expecting the sharp up move to continue next week in the Dow.
So my question begs for an answer. Ha.
Do you have an Alternate Elliot Wave Count to the Current Pattern in the Dow ?
Do you see anything out there, that could substantially change your bullish opinion, in the near term ?
Thank you,
THE_UNWIND