In this analysis I'll be shedding light on my own theory on:
- How President Trump's Covid-19 Positive news may impact the market - Similarities and differences in historic cases - Why Trump possibly announced his testing positive so quickly
Trump's Testing Positive - Trump testing positive for Covid-19, 4 weeks before the presidential elections, is not good news - Especially considering that the current market is momentum driven, such bad news is good enough to scare new investors from pouring money into the market
We can see a similar case where the president's medical condition negatively impacted the market
Historic case - President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in September 25, 1955. - Before this incident, the stock market was at an unprecedented bullish rally - Immediately after news was released that he was hospitalized, the market fell by 6%, leading to $14 billion instantly vanishing - Eisenhower recovered, and it was later announced that his condition was not serious - Eventually, the market bounced, and continued to rally upwards
- President Trump also announced his testing positive for Covid-19 a few hours ago - Just as Eisenhower's case, the stock market is in an uptrend, with significant bullish momentum - The market is correcting, due to bad news, but not as significantly as that of the past - Just as Eisenhower, considering the fact that Trump will be taken care of seriously, it's most likely that he will recover from the virus - As such, it's reasonable to expect that the market will continue to rally upwards
- However, it's also important to consider that market situations are not the same as the past - For more in-depth explanation on what makes today's market special, check out my previous analysis below:
Why did Trump announce his condition? - This is an important question to ask, as Trump announced his testing positive for Covid via twitter - Trump is arguably the most powerful person in the world. He could have concealed his condition if he really wanted to, and later justify it as "classified information" - What could have been Trump's intentions behind this? - In the case of the Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, his support rate was at 48% prior to him testing positive - After he got the virus, there was a sentiment of sympathy among the general public, leading to his support rate skyrocketing to 72%, an all time high support rate ever since Tony Blair - Given this case, and the fact that the presidential elections will be held in 4 weeks, Trump could have been targeting this sympathetic sentiment among the general public - It's also highly likely that Trump recovers quickly, with the best medical staff from the country treating him - As such, he will be qualified to talk about the issue (as someone who has caught the virus), and suggest that he's the only one capable of solving the problem.
Conclusion As past cases demonstrate, problems regarding the President's medical condition is never good for the market. However, given that the president recovers quickly, this could end up being a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Comment
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A report was just released by the White House, stating that President Trump is doing very well. He does not require any supplemental oxygen, and that specialists have decided to initiate the Remdesivir therapy.
Remdesivir is an antiviral medication originally developed by biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences (GILD) to treat Ebola.
Gilead Sciences' weekly chart demonstrates that it's testing significant support levels on the weekly. Resistance levels are at $70, and $78.
It's most likely that Trump disclosed the diagnosis because he is straight forward and honest, most definitely more so than the last 3 administrations.
Im shocked every day the 'he's a liar' narrative continues....its almost like people are so used to being lied to that they don't know what honesty looks like anymore.
The only correlation I see is: one's exposure to mass media is inversely proportional to ones ability to distinguish truth from falsehood (which is the true definition of insanity)
anyway...its IMPLIED in what corona virus IS that most people will be exposed..not a shock at all he finally got it...there is no avoiding exposure..no matter what measures are taken...its simply not how highly contagious viruses work in a human population.
the market is artificially buoyed and has been due for a shakedown for a long time. I AGREE MARKETS DONT LIKE SICK PRESIDENTS...but there are so many other variables at play the last thing that makes sense to me is speculating this as some kind of deception or the reason for any substantial market action during a global LIQUIDITY CRISIS.
If your theory holds true that markets run from presidential sickness...then Biden being ahead in the 'polls' should scare the xxxx out them ...not seeing that Biden is deep in the throws of dementia is willful blindness or said insanity.
Michael_Wang_Official
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@seferRaziel I wouldn’t necessarily say that it’s because he’s more honest, and yes, there are more factors that affect the market in different ways. You can check our my perspective on it in my other post on the Tech Bubble. Thank you for the comment.
seferRaziel
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@Michael_Wang_Official, I see. I suppose 'as honest as someone with national secrets to protect can be' would be better way to put it.
ThrivingProject
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@seferRaziel, watch his December 10, 2015 deposition in regard to the Trump University scandal and then ask yourself what honesty is.
seferRaziel
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@ThrivingProject, ok, searching for it now. any particular outlet I should watch? there are several. the one with Caleb Newton starts rather hyperbolic and is talking about monetary irrisponsibility by supposed victims to begin with....is there another without such an intro and context that applies to every college grad from the middle class and below.
seferRaziel
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@ThrivingProject, the one by rawstory.com is just a guy telling me what it is..no transcript or full tape to listen to.
seferRaziel
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@ThrivingProject, ok, I waded though a bunch of bleh. so a few people leveraged money they didn't have (35k?) to be rich real estate investors ..(need more capital to do that so full on financial irresponsibility)..and Trump allowed someone he trusted to hire teachers and later claimed he ok'd them..but didn't...but isn't that trust by extension? idk...the deposing lawyer sounds shifty, the tapes are edited...trump is doing what any str8 up smart person would in that situation in avoiding word game traps that are obvious to me. He's trying to help stabilize the world and get us past the BS...this is so trivial I can't believe it. You owe me 15 minutes of my life back.
seferRaziel
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@ThrivingProject, and if the BBB isn't vetting its complaints thoroughly and downgrades ratings based on conjecture...if it were my business, id let em know I was thinking of suing as well...no way he didn't know the mics were still hot in that room.
keentrading
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@ThrivingProject, Biden himself is not honest he was not allowed to win two times prior due to lying and Plagiarizing speeches. It’s said but we needed better candidate the best they had was a two time looser and liar. youtube.com/watch?v=7XUC6_HZHuY&feature=share
dontdaytrade
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@seferRaziel, Keep politics off a damn trading site. The market doesn't care about Trump, as you can see now.
Im shocked every day the 'he's a liar' narrative continues....its almost like people are so used to being lied to that they don't know what honesty looks like anymore.
The only correlation I see is: one's exposure to mass media is inversely proportional to ones ability to distinguish truth from falsehood (which is the true definition of insanity)
anyway...its IMPLIED in what corona virus IS that most people will be exposed..not a shock at all he finally got it...there is no avoiding exposure..no matter what measures are taken...its simply not how highly contagious viruses work in a human population.
the market is artificially buoyed and has been due for a shakedown for a long time. I AGREE MARKETS DONT LIKE SICK PRESIDENTS...but there are so many other variables at play the last thing that makes sense to me is speculating this as some kind of deception or the reason for any substantial market action during a global LIQUIDITY CRISIS.
If your theory holds true that markets run from presidential sickness...then Biden being ahead in the 'polls' should scare the xxxx out them ...not seeing that Biden is deep in the throws of dementia is willful blindness or said insanity.