DOW JONES Holding the 1W MA50 could repeat the 2016/17 rally!

This is the price action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Housing Crisis. On the log 1W chart, we can fit it within a Channel Up pattern, with the January 2022 top as its latest Higher High. As you see there is considerable room to fall and touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up but on the Sep 26 - Oct 10 1W candles, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) acted as Support and pushed the price back above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).

It is important to mention that while the candle action was on Lower Lows, the 1W RSI was on Higher Lows, i.e. on a Bullish Divergence. The last time we had all this conditions fulfilled together, was during the August 2015 - February 2016 correction. As you see, the RSI was on Higher Lows while the price Double Bottomed, found Support on the 1W MA200 and rebounded back above the 1W MA50. The 1W MA50 then turned into a Support and never broke and that gave way to the very strong 2016/17 rally.

You can see that its bars pattern fractal (black) fits almost perfectly on the late 2021/2022 price action. As a result, we could expect a gradual recovery into a strong rally in Q3 2023, especially if the 1W MA50 holds as a Support. If not, the 2022 Channel Down (red) can give more Lower Lows until Dow hits the bottom of its 14 year old Channel Up.


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