This is the price action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Housing Crisis. On the log 1W chart, we can fit it within a Channel Up pattern, with the January 2022 top as its latest Higher High. As you see there is considerable room to fall and touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up but on the Sep 26 - Oct 10 1W candles, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) acted as Support and pushed the price back above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
It is important to mention that while the candle action was on Lower Lows, the 1W RSI was on Higher Lows, i.e. on a Bullish Divergence. The last time we had all this conditions fulfilled together, was during the August 2015 - February 2016 correction. As you see, the RSI was on Higher Lows while the price Double Bottomed, found Support on the 1W MA200 and rebounded back above the 1W MA50. The 1W MA50 then turned into a Support and never broke and that gave way to the very strong 2016/17 rally.
You can see that its bars pattern fractal (black) fits almost perfectly on the late 2021/2022 price action. As a result, we could expect a gradual recovery into a strong rally in Q3 2023, especially if the 1W MA50 holds as a Support. If not, the 2022 Channel Down (red) can give more Lower Lows until Dow hits the bottom of its 14 year old Channel Up.
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It is certainly possible, but I still prefer to be guided by what statements the FED gives us, which strengthens or weakens the USD, and then look at all sorts of indicators.
DeGRAM
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Thank you for sharing your analysis. Great job!
UnknownUnicorn15614419
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The description is not the most complete, but the schedule itself is very good. Did you consider any news when building the chart?
Solldy
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Pretty detailed review of the pair, but still, I'm curious to know. Do you take into account fund sales before analyzing? Do you somehow study their effect on the market?
CBKWahoo
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March 2020 + October 2022 = 2008 lol when the media is busting out FUD 24/7 telling you the sky is falling and markets are going to crash further thats your sign to enter the market again.
i_calvillo
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Great job as always! In my humble opinion, the actual macro situation has nothing similar to 2016, not even with 2008 but I would take the latest as the model of the crash that awaits us: we are not even in the middle of the way down. So yes, your red channel down seems pretty accurate. See you all on the bottom for the big buying party!