After the TL test a melt-up blowoff to new ATH should show us the divergence as prices washout. Only then would shorting be good R/R.
Dow Theory: The Trend Continues until a Clear Reversal occurs; Didn't get there yet!
That said, I am short at this price to capture a bull market pullback TL retest, a very characteristic price move after a breakout rally. Do NOT expect a big selloff, the sentiment is strongly and should remain so into the New Year. Any pullback should get a strong bounce from 26800-26950 zone. Selling will likely only last for a few days, perhaps only two or three sessions before bulls pile back in on FOMO. Trend is Bull, and Countertrend moves rarely last more than 9 sessions, typically 5-6 at most.
The subsequent melt-up rally will be a stunning parabola like the one we saw in Jan 2018 IMO. Could drive VIX under 10 again. Will be watching for that signal!
In EOD trade I plunged into Nov weekly calls on SPY. Seems likely to bull once more early next week. At 16:14 I bought 20 more Monday daily 309 calls, lol. If it pops the .40c contracts will be $2, let's see! Good weekend all!
I realize I've ignored DOW Theory rule on Trend: "It continues until clear reversal."
Taking a chance here! ALways chancy...
IMO after six weeks of just about vertical wall-climbing, MFI is dropping off and although we don't see divergence in RSI on index yet, we do see divergence in DJT today, getting pushback from 11K resistance. Market is ripe for a pullback IMO.
When complacency and greed reach maximum it will break sharp and sudden. be ready!
IMO we are at pivot to downtrend, a counter-trend movement in bullish impulse; these last typically from 3-6 sessions, and might retest the rising TL around index 26800, which will likely spark the parabolic race to ultimate ATH target 28860 - 29155.
Fibonacci time pointed to pivot into decline beginning 19 Nov; this arrived timely. Expect a week or two of consolidation before another pivot back into last leg uptrend. It should be stunning in its irrational exubarance and unbridled enthusiasm!