DaddySawbucks
Short

US 30 Breaking the 200 WMA: Great Crash of 2020

DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Breaking the 200 week MA is a severe technical breakdown. Becomes bottomless after this. Last seen in 2008, 56% selloff.

Panic selloff. Irrational exuberance replaced by irrational fear. Short the rallies, try not to get killed; GLTA!

Not advice, clearly just an irrational idea. A fierce bear rally can occur at any time, trade at your own risk.
Comment: More shocking news precipitates another big panic dump. Probably a long entry point here, off 7K pips lol! Panic will subside and media frenzy will pass within a few weeks, the relief rally will make millionaires. More selling will likely follow later in the year, creating a terrific long opportunity for long-term!
Comment: A few more circuit breakers and this market will be cut in half... there's a lot of blood running in the Street and some of it is mine... probably buy time soon IMO.
Trade active: Buying SPXL here. Add if it sinks again. GLTA!
Order cancelled: Stopped out and ofc missed the monster rally which turned out to be only another shorting entry. IMO this will just crash.
Comment: Bottom wicks of candles from 5 Feb 18, 24 Dec 18 project a lower TL with tar box: 19,600 - 19,900. I reckon I'll bite again there, if we see it. Looks Bearish AH...
Trade active: Gosh wild swings in futurz overnight... looks like bulls are back nibbing, bargain hunting, bottom fishing; short squeeze likely soon IMO. Taking small long pos in SPXL; could be a head fake, but severely oversold in panic phase, expect a relief rally, as typical of crashes; sold off 700/7k pips; should get back about 0.50 Fibo on relief ("It stopped going down! Buy it!"), as we saw in 2008, 1987, 1929 &tc.

In 2008 it rallied back up to and traded just above the 200 WMA before rolling over for the real crash, a rolling Bear market that devours half equity...

Crash phases: Initial Panic (likely near or at completion); Relief Rally; Despair.

After Despair, accumulation begins the next BULL cycle. Median time in Bear: for S&P, ~7 months, a bit longer for DJIA b/c of sector weighting. Expect the Bear to campaign until October, leading up to the Great Donald's re-election... GLTA!
Comment: Looks like the gap closed in late AM trade, dwindled down to a few pips above and lifted strongly... if this holds thru Monday then the bottom is in for near-term.
Comment: Traded the bear flag with fair success; closed out before Trump talks, every time he barks it tanks off... Monday is anybody's guess, no positions over weekend here.

Day trading at this juncture limits risk, any overnight hold can disappoint.
Comment: OFC they liked THIS speech, go figure, and we missed a monster rally. Price nearly reached the rejection threshold on this chart; might lift for 2-3 sessions before the primary down trend resumes, which is always bewildering to FOMO bulls.

To play the retrace rally take small pos near the strike, these can fail at any time; look for the usual failure signals to enter short.

A possibility exists that an expanded irregular flat could carry price quite high, possibly up to 3050 / 26408 at the .62 retracement (+570 SPX / +5208 DJIA).
Comment: Short every rally lmfao its tanking off cuz recession is here, viral syndrome started it and will only get worse...
Order cancelled: Insane risk now just waiting to see where it ends... cold sink for another month as viral cases break out... there was no bounce... just a near-vertical drop. I'm done!
Trade active: DCA on SPXL here under 20K, price now back to 2017 level and there's a support, it could break ofc but taking a smallish long here... VIX is less in face of selloff suggesting it's bottom finding. DJIA sub-19K will be a buy IMO. Epidemic will pass in a few months and this will rally, it is a bear market but rallies are fierce, don't get caught in short squeeze!
Trade closed: stop reached: Closed longs in open for a push. Pure crapshoot atm; sit on any cash u got left!
Comment: Trades at 2017 support, -32%; this article suggests price behavior might follow 1919 flu epidemic pattern, if so, it's bottoming here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market...
Comment: No skin in game atm; just another whipsaw and chance to lose two ways IMO; looks for all the world to me like nothing more than a Fourth Wave after a Monster Three.

INfections will grow exponentially over next two weeks and panic will return, lotta folks not taking this seriously yet (beach parties and picnics ffs!); will get sober and serious real soon IMO.

Comments

... and I think you're right that this was wave 4, and we hit bottom when NDX hits Dec 2018 support.
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I can't believe you're sitting this out. Funny thing is if you bet against end of day action you would have made money 13 out of the last 15 days..... (and you wouldn't have lost much on the 2 days where it went the same direction)

I think people are losing money because they expect continuity from day to day.... doesn't work that way.
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Quadruple witching tomorrow, short covering rally.
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DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, IMO we got another leg down next week. Cases increasing geometrically...
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hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, then short something.

I agree one more leg. I also expect a short cover rally in the afternoon so gonna wait until right before close. Short some garbage like BYND or CMG.
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hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, futures down close to 5% again
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DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, turned overnite; a head fake. More choppiness to come but IMO the worst of panic has passed. now the grinding part...
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hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, Fed pump, these pumps always sell off. Waiting for the stimulus pump so I can short that as well.

All the money in the world isn't going to stop the virus.
+1 Reply
Futures down big again. At this point it;s an absolute certainty that we're going to have a worldwide recession. Short the pops, don't go long.

We're going to see some major bankruptcies, not just small companies but corporations as well. Banks are gonna nosedive when the loans go sour, this is gonna be worse than 2008. We've been in a corporate loan bubble for a while now, and it's gonna pop HARD.

Wayfair (W) alone has $1.5B in loans, there are easily 1000 companies like them. The housing collapse was a $1.5T loan problem, this stands to be much worse. I think we're going to see the second major global economic meltdown involving banks that won't resolve for 1.5 - 2 years.
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Looks to me like it's gonna skip the bounce and head straight for your end target.

Everyone is assuming recession now, oil just hit 18 year low. That's not a typo. You have to pull 25 years of charts to find the next support.
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