A nice move down at the end of last week, with a harami posted on Weds, bearish action with a weak close on Thursday and a gap down on Friday. Notice how price rebounded off the WS1 at the end of the week after being rejected at the Demark R1 on Tuesday. Pivots for next week show an open below the weekly pivot, which matches nicely with the DR1 to make strong resistance overhead and gives a bearish outlook. DS2 also matches WS1 for support and so these two areas may act as magnets for price on Monday. The Stoch divergence is playing out nicely with plenty more downside left. For early part of next week i'm looking for a bounce to 25400 (WP) to add short for a continued move down to 25125 (WS1) and 25027 where we will reassess based on the reaction to the monthly pivot.
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This is playing out very nicely, we dropped to WS1 then climbed to WP before a drop. We are now at MP so expect a bounce or consolidation, particularly as it’s round number 25k support, but aiming to get to WS2 eventually.
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WS2 hit and what a reaction, if you followed the plan and switched long at the pivot you have done very well. I’m on holiday in France so missed the whole move after getting stopped out at entry at the MP, as wanted to go risk out ASAP. Very frustrating but that is life. This whole move is pre Opex games so I don’t believe for a second, however we have smashed through several pivots so now remain flat until the next set up presents itself. Pivot to pivot is the plan and the last few posts have proven how effective it can be.
Sorry to hear you missed the move Chris I got really lucky on this one rode the down wave to pivot then rolled puts into calls for a monster bank day, thanks for all the tips and comments!
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, excellent, glad one of us caught it! Great thing about trading is there is always another fish to catch, one of the reasons I only really trade the Dow is there are usually several big moves a week. I take satisfaction knowing the analysis was correct, and at least I didn’t lose money! It’s now showing resistance at WR1 and fading after that monster move all the way from WS2.
DaddySawbucks
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@chrisatom, Yeah, I thought so too and lost a pretty penny on puts today in end of day bullup. Rolled them into calls and gone long. It's a juggernaut;I expect to see 25800 soon, as you predicted previously. I expected a red candle today but it was more like a tiny weak wave 2 in bullish impulse- going to Moon now. Probly see 26000 in a few days. I'll watch for pivots and post, but I expect to move higher Monday until Weds/Thurs, or just bullup all week. I expected consolidation pullback, none to be had. Enjoy a good weekend!
DaddySawbucks
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My thoughts exactly also looking for lift to 25400 - 25440 ish before the next leg down. Will post pivots when I see the signals, good luck!
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, excellent, thanks! Will put out a bigger picture chart soon, but essentially looking for continued move down into mid sept.
DaddySawbucks
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@chrisatom, TBH IDK how long the sale might last, a month seems long as most of the downwaves have been 9-10 sessions. This might be longer.
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, there is a guy called market timer on Twitter who puts out a free newsletter, he is uncannily accurate with his calls based on a simple method of extrapolating highs and lows. It may not be down for a month, but sideways action too.
DaddySawbucks
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@chrisatom, O tyvm! I'll check him out- what is he calling today?! LOL
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, he has a longer term outlook than that, usually a few weeks to a month or two. He’s thinks down into mid sept.