If the movement holds within the triangle, I expect a break to the downside at the end of Nov/Dec. A break to the upside is also possible, although based on recent movements there is strong resistance to the upside.
Look for a break out of the triangle before the new year, that would invalidate this idea.
i think the market has another support trendline than you drawed here .... try connecting the lowest lows --- the picture will look different.
otterslide
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@masala, You're right, I wanted to fix it but it was too late..Didn't know editing is only for 15min. I'm a newbie at this, just wanted to put something out there and see if I get it right at all.
The idea is there though, and Nov-Dec is still the timeline in my opinion, and should coincide with the GDP numbers at the end of both months if any sudden break happens. It looks like the 2008 break to the downside started right after GDP fell, which of course makes sense. I think it's probably too early to see GDP fall too much, but we won't know until then. Agri GDP is going down quick, a few are flat/slight down, service sector and mining is keeping things alive. Any damage there will be bad, so we'll see if we can hang on another quarter, but I think the tarrifs are starting to show in the numbers, and remember we just had more take effect recently.
Just keep a watch on the narrowing,.. I think I added too many ups/down also. It's interesting to watch this on DJI as I have watched GLD do the same.