DOW: Muted Upside; Bear Market Speed Pending Fed
Its no surprise economic data is beginning to falter around the world with yields becoming negative or being negative already; even during slight bounces, Treasuries fail to gain any considerable ground. Negative data continues to point in several sectors like the DJT and in Manufacturing (PMIs) to inevitably, recessionary. For those who are trading, it is important to pinpoint certain patterns that could result in big algo sell-offs. For example; when the 10 year Treasury drops below 1% you can expect a massive Algo sell-off.
My conservative target price for the Dow is about 24,000 pending the Fed talks by September 15-16th. How fast we go down or how hard we bounce will be based on the Fed cut. I have a hard time believing Powell will cut 50bps, but rather, cut 25bps at best and remain Dovish. From that I see a slight muted loss but still a bear market.
At this point I do not believe the Fed can save the market. My advice is do not buy typical stocks in the SP, Dow, Nas100 for long positions. Swing trade for those who want to buy, and for those who want to short, be prepared to analyze effectively for adequate entries.
- zSplit
My conservative target price for the Dow is about 24,000 pending the Fed talks by September 15-16th. How fast we go down or how hard we bounce will be based on the Fed cut. I have a hard time believing Powell will cut 50bps, but rather, cut 25bps at best and remain Dovish. From that I see a slight muted loss but still a bear market.
At this point I do not believe the Fed can save the market. My advice is do not buy typical stocks in the SP, Dow, Nas100 for long positions. Swing trade for those who want to buy, and for those who want to short, be prepared to analyze effectively for adequate entries.
- zSplit
