This is just a general idea where we are headed and in what form. I haven't even calculated the actual levels...just a general eye from experience. At trackthemarkets.com I keep closer tabs on what's going on. This is what I post and trade. Bulls better watch out...the next move down could be around 900 points with a first target of 15370. This is just the beginning of a multi-year bear market.
My Ending Diagonal was malformed on my other DJIA chart....it ended sooner than I thought it would. This is an update...but nothing has really changed, long term.
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UPDATE: The previous low of 15450 on Jan 20th 2016, could be a first wave down, where we are just now completing wave 2 up. 1st Feb is wave a, 11th Feb 15503 wave b and possibly an Ending Diagonal for wave c...up from wave b and, so far, within converging trendlines. If correct, this would give the next wave down a thrust back to the origin of the Ending Diagonal to 15503 in short order. The length of the third wave would be expected to be > 3700 points. I will post a chart on my site, possibly today. trackthemarkets.com I also notice that other global markets could be very bearish patterns. If correct, this should dominate the news cycle for some time. This is not the time to have any exposure to the global markets...unless you are short.
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UPDATE: I have changed the structure of the Ending Diagonal where the green arrow, on my site, is best seen as wave 1. There will be an update after the trading day today to reflect this change. I expected an overlap at 16664, which never happened. The Ending Diagonal should nearly be complete, with a first target of 15503. Wave 1 is presumed to end at 16796. We may get the overlap today...soon...for wave 4. If accurate, this should dominate the news cycle.
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hussain9
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The extraction of oil and natural gas from shale has reduced the amount of oil the United States needs to import and is adding to the economy in the forms of jobs, investment, and growth. Oil exploration and production is again an important industry in the United States.
Higher prices per barrel of oil also helped to justify the cost of a hydraulically fractured well.The United States is once again one of the top producers of oil and gas. Greater domestic oil production is a net positive for the United States. However, as oil-producing country (and not just an oil consumer), the United States now also feels an unpleasant pinch when oil prices drop.
hussain9
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another thing wich is new after america started to prduce oil : the dow is reacting very well with oil prices as it now became part of economy < so if we are expecting oil prices to rise it means that also dow is gonna do the same :
willworknow
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I believe the reason oil and commodities are WAY down is due to deflation. This will catch up to the equities "soon". I think we will know (or be closer to knowing) in a week or so. I will be very wary after a five-wave decline to new lows.
hussain9
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yeah deflation is there but in the other said we have a big country that recently started to play an important part in oil production and this will reflect in its economy . for my country if oil prices going up economy is better and i think america started to do the same .
hussain9
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I am gonna look at your website to understand and take a clear vision about your look . thank u very much .
willworknow
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In either case, we agree that we are headed down...it's just how far. If I am right, it will be easy to tell...as will be your scenario...it will show weakness to the downside. Thanks for your input!
hussain9
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yeah willowrknow . thank you again .
hussain9
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hussain9
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I can see 3 waves from the top of that ending diagonal , so expecting a flat 3-3-5 or a triangle :
willworknow
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This was my previous thought...until the possibility of an Ending Diagonal for wave C as you have outlined in your iv_c. An Ending Diagonal (if that's what's going on) would indicate much lower. Another thing with your outlook vs. my very bearish one, your ii_c is very deep and so is your iv_c...there is no alternation between ii_c and iv_c. The issue with mine is, as you show, there is nothing clearly impulsive down. That being said, look how oil started around $112. It caught me off guard due to the messy start. Trends often end in a messy pattern. I do have an open mind for your pattern though. Thanks. One other thing...it appears global markets are poised for a 3rd wave down too. Hang Seng and Aussie ASX could both be sitting on the edge.
Higher prices per barrel of oil also helped to justify the cost of a hydraulically fractured well.The United States is once again one of the top producers of oil and gas. Greater domestic oil production is a net positive for the United States. However, as oil-producing country (and not just an oil consumer), the United States now also feels an unpleasant pinch when oil prices drop.