CV19 will take ~3-4 months to burn thru US population. April will be the Cruelest Month IMO , tens or even hundreds of thousands of cases.
A Fool's Rally to the 0.50 Fibo around 24K will likely provoke a second bottom.
Geopolitics will take center stage after the viral epidemic abates this summer. ERs will be lousy in Q3 after the viral lockdown, there can be no massive rally.
Tankoff should be mostly over by election day. Trump re-election will spark rally, not because Trump is beloved, but because it will resolve uncertainty.
This isn't advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
This is almost certainly a bull trap and not a true long opportunity IMO, a secondary break is likely to follow and retest the 23 March lows. This may occur in late April/May once the economic extent of COVID damage becomes apparent; or later in year when ERs come back all red. The 0.50 Fibo for an SPX retrace is around 2693. We have strong R around 2636 here. Reaction rallies in bear markets usually do reach the 0.50; less commonly, may attain the 0.62, which would put SPX back to 2937; this seems rather unlikely, given the massive explosion in active cases now. Markets up today on ignorant speculation over vaccine trials. These take years and will not have any impact on the current crisis, lol. Betting on these squeeze rallies is risky and often fruitless, its just whipsaw.
Fibos for Dow are shown in the above chart, bank weakness holds this index relatively lower. 30 stocks is not enough for statistical modeling.
No current position; daily fluctuations wildly unpredictable, waiting on clear signal.
We got an ABC short squeeze rally with divergence in MFI and RSI , lower volume on each successive lift. The rally is doomed IMO.
Puts so damned expensive now really difficult to find a decent position to put on for swing trade. Mostly buy dailies and wait for the break...
Thursday might be worth buying 10c dailies to see if we get a break Monday.
IMO these ETFs trade like LEAPS options, and may even cost less now, lol.
Although it seems unlikely, a short squeeze could push indexes to the 0.62 Fibo before rollover.
If no higher high on 4/9 to 4/14, then Rollover is imminent IMO.
After second bottom, expect a massive 5-wave impulsive rally up to the 0.618 or even 0.786 levels for the full drop. Then another rollover... look at behavior after the drops in 2018 (both Feb and Nov > Dec; IMO the 2020 low has yet to be found.
IMO we may be topping out right here on 4/14; beware the Ides of April?!
Entered shorts in SQQQ, SPXS, TECS. TECS is cheap; way less than monthly puts, lol.
Retail numbers were lousy but this was expected and they will surely improve by Q3 when this plague passes over the summer.
The trend is up atm and useless to fight it. Pattern is sell for a day, then buy, buy, buy.
Expect another EOD short squeeze.
Holding nothing over weekend; GL!
People are not in soup lines on the street. The viral syndrome will pass and has certainly done some damage but this will recover.
I expect this Bear to last ~7-9 months, the median bear for SandP. If we enter a more severe recession it will persist into 2021.
The current bull flag is almost certainly an ABC countertrend to the primary downtrend, which is not over IMO.
Lower low can occur later this Spring, or maybe in the Fall, creating a terrific accumulation phase.
Great buy opportunities in the year ahead and another massive bull leg to follow into the 2020s IMO; the ultimate short squeeze.