A relentless rise only interrupted by small correction has been the name of the game since November last year. I think we have seen the peak of wave 3/ at 22,419.52 and a more substantial correction is about to unfold in wave 4/.
I'm looking for a correction into the price range of wave iv of one lessor degree between 20,371 - 21,153. This should set the stage for the final rally higher in wave 5/ to complete the long-term rally from March 2009. As we enter the final rally, caution is advised.
As wave 2/ a double combination, I will be looking for a triangle consolidation in wave 4. This will mean the low of wave 4/ should be seen early in the correction.
This is the first time the 10yr cycle did not top before the end of "OCTOBER". --- (1907 to date)
"I" wonder if it will top before the end of the year "?" --- (2017)
If "I" am correct the 4 yr. cycle low is due next yr. (2018)
This is what "I" think. (66.7% or better chance it will top before the end of the year.) --- (2017)
"The big Question" --- (Will it just be a 4th Wave correction?) --- or the "Big Top?"
? What do you think ?
" Dow Indu. 30 E-Mini "
"October, 2007"
a. = Small Traders = Plus 4,520 contracts.
b. = Large Traders = Plus 2,430 contracts.
c. = "Smart Money" = Minus 6,950 contracts.
"October, 2017" --- ( "10 years later" )
a. = Small Traders = Plus 4,874 contracts.
b. = Large Traders = Plus 80,902 contracts.
c. = "Smart Money" = Minus 85,776 contracts.
This is for information only. --- (This is for "EDUCATION ONLY") --- (This is not a buy or sell recommendation.)
jeffreyjim
⋅
"Smart Money and The "DOW" (E-Mini)
1a = Plus 208 contracts --- March, 2009
1b = Minus 94,974 contracts --- September, 2017
"Large Speculators and The "DOW" (E-Mini)
2a = Plus 2,277 contracts --- March, 2009
2b - Plus 95,721 contracts --- September, 2017
"Small Speculators and The "DOW" (E-Mini) --- ("Little Guys" and "Little Gals")
3a = Minus 2,485 contracts --- March,2009
3b = Minus 747 contracts --- September, 2017
Just sharing some information.
jeffreyjim
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"Some food for thought"
"I" learned about this 10 yr. cycle from "LARRY WILLIAMS" ( "This is one of ten" - - - 10 yr cycles) that "I" learned about from "LARRY WILLIAMS"
("The Right Stock at the Right Time") a must read book by "LARRY WILLIAMS"
1907 Top first qtr. of the year - 1917 Top JUNE - (1927 Top "OCTOBER" 9% + drop) - 1937 TOP MARCH - 1947 TOP JULY - 1957 TOP JULY - 1967 TOP SEPTEMBER - 1977 TOP JANUARY - 1987 TOP AUGUST - 1997 TOP JULY - (2007 TOP "OCTOBER" 54% + drop) - - - (2017 "?" will it happen this time top before the end of " ? OCTOBER ? ")
This 10 yr cycle has always topped before the end of "OCTOBER". - - - (1907-2007)
giloc
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Hi. So you think the Dow could touch the 200 MA!...It's a Huge bet if we consider that the Dow doesn't touch the 200 MA since June 2016 .... We'll see...
jeffreyjim
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"I" blew it. At the bottom of my last comment.
(WAVE 1 = 1 wave) -- (WAVE 2 = 1 wave) -- (WAVE 3 = 5 waves) -- (WAVE 4 = 1wave) -- (WAVE 5 = 1 wave) for a "9 WAVE MOVE" not counting other possible "EXTENSIONS"
("I" am counting "WAVE 3 as a "EXTENSION") If my #1 count is correct. (What do you think ?)
jeffreyjim
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"I" wold like to add some more to my comment. If you would prefer that "I" stop just let me know. ("I" do think that you and "I" could get along very well) ( ?? )
#1a = "I" started learning about the markets in my early 20's. ( todays age 62 yrs plus )
#1b = My first two teachers other than the "SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS" ( GENE MORGAN ) he had a "TV" show and tought people about the markets many yrs ago.
#1c = "Robert R. Prechter. JR" ("I" met him when he was 27 yrs. old.) -- "Larry Williams" ("I" met him about 1999 to 2000 +or-)
#1d = "William O'Neil" -- "James Dines" -- "Carl Swenlin"-- and a few others.
#2a = Starting at the "GREAT RECESSION LOW" in the "DOW" (2009)
#2a - Yes "I" think you are 100% correct we are completing "5 WAVES UP".
#2c = If you are counting "WAVE 2" of 5 as a running flat correction.
#2d = "I" am a believer in "Sentiment" This is one of the reasons "I" like "Tradingview.com"
"I" can look at and review what the majority are using for there #1 wave count.
#2e = "I" am also a big believer in ("THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE AND RECESSIONS IN THE U.S.A.) "I" learned about this from ("Robert R. Prechter JR. many years ago") "I" did a lot of research on this to see if it was true. "I" also did a lot of research on ("JAPAN AND THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE ALSO") "I" think this is a good thing to check out. Government manipulation of interest rates.
#2f = This count may or may not fit the main cycle timing, "I" am using, as you know cycles can be very tricky at times.
#2g = Know compare the August, 1921 low in the "DOW" to the final high in "1929" ("THE START OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION") To todays market.
#2h = Then compare (9-29-1927) to the final high. " Pretty wild" That could be a comparable to todays date (9-29-2017) ? MAYBE ? of what is left in this move plus or minus.
#2i = If "I" am correct next yr (2018) is when the next 4 yr cycle low is due.
#2j = These are some of the reason this is my ("#2 WAVE COUNT")
#2K = If this is the final high in the very near future. This is going to be a very long ride to "2022" this could get very, Very nasty. If it is a slow decline "I" calll these "GRINDERS". They can drive you nuts, among other things. "I" also wonder if the "Great Recession low will be taken out ?" ( Min. target "I" think would be 61.8% ret.) That would not be good either.
" MY NUMBER ONE WAVE COUNT" at this time. (9-29-2017)
#3a = If the "WAVE 2 RUNNING CORRECTION" would change to ("WAVE ONE and TWO OF WAVE THREE") That would mean we are only completing "WAVE 3" up that means we need to complete, a larger Wave 4 and Wave5. "I" hope "I" wrote this correctly. This would work for "WAVE 4 TO COMPLETE (BOTTOM) WITH THE 4 YR CYCLE LOW DUE NEXT YEAR. (2018)" "FIBO RET." .236 to.382
(WAVE ONE = 1wave)--(WAVE 3 = 5 waves)--(WAVE 5 = 1WAVE) To complete a ("9 WAVE MOVE") not counting possible "EXTENSIONS". This would also fit very well with the "CYCLES" and a few other things. (WHAT do you think ?) ----- (Next week "I" will talk about "MY" 20 yr cycle "THING" if that is "O.K." with you ? ("I" think you will like it.) You might wonder why is he doing this ? "NEXT WEEK"
(PLEASE PEOPLE "I" AM NOT ASKING OR TELLING ANYONE TO BUY OR SELL ANYTHING --- "THIS IS TO BE USED ON ALL OF MY COMMENTS "I" POSTED ON THIS PAGE - SITE)
THESE COMMENTS ARE FOR " EDUCATION " ONLY
THANKS for LISTENING,
" ONE EYE JIM "
jeffreyjim
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" I " would like to add a little bit to the comment. " I " added below. The "GREAT DEPRESSION LOW IN THE DOW WAS 1932" this was also a 10 yr cycle low (" I " think they call it the "DECENNIAL CYCLE). 1932 plus 90 yrs. = 2022 this is when " I " expect the next major low will happen. (PLUS OR MINUS ONE YR.) This is the same yr "MY" 20 yr cycle low is due. (2022) If " I " am correct this is also when the 10 yr cycle low is due (2022). If " I " am correct this should be the 4 yr cycle low also. (2022) " I " think they call this the 4 yr "PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE" ( "I" figured this about three yrs ago the 1929 and the 1932 thing.) If this is correct look at all of the downward pressure. "OUCH IN A BIG WAY" ("I" hope and pray this is very, very wrong.) What do you think ? "I" think your work is great stuff. (The way you lable your waves this took a lot of hard thinking.) Thank you very much.
jeffreyjim
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This could be very correct. " I " expect the final high to happen in or around "2019" the ("90 yr. ANNIVERSARY 1929 CRASH") What do you think.
" I " never herd anybody talk about this, have you?
Thanks for posting this " I " like your work.
EWS
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@jeffreyjim, I can see that you have given cycles a lot of though. Gann does mention the 90 yr, cycle alongside the 60 yr and 30 yr and of course the 10 yr. cycles, so I think your reasoning is well founded. I do think that a peak in 2019 sounds far away considering we are close to wave 5/, but I will not dismiss the possibility.
Keep up the good work your are doing with the cycles, I like it.
"I" wonder if it will top before the end of the year "?" --- (2017)
If "I" am correct the 4 yr. cycle low is due next yr. (2018)
This is what "I" think. (66.7% or better chance it will top before the end of the year.) --- (2017)
"The big Question" --- (Will it just be a 4th Wave correction?) --- or the "Big Top?"
? What do you think ?
" Dow Indu. 30 E-Mini "
"October, 2007"
a. = Small Traders = Plus 4,520 contracts.
b. = Large Traders = Plus 2,430 contracts.
c. = "Smart Money" = Minus 6,950 contracts.
"October, 2017" --- ( "10 years later" )
a. = Small Traders = Plus 4,874 contracts.
b. = Large Traders = Plus 80,902 contracts.
c. = "Smart Money" = Minus 85,776 contracts.
This is for information only. --- (This is for "EDUCATION ONLY") --- (This is not a buy or sell recommendation.)